URBAN SPATIAL EXPANSION FEATURE IDENTIFICATION AND FUTURE EVOLUTION SIMULATION OF CHONGQING'S DOWNTOWN

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240511.001

Abstract

Abstract: Study on simulation and drives of urban temporal-spatial evolutionary features can offer references in planning urban development and managing land resources. This paper uses urban spatial expansion identification mode, spatial expansion features measuring indicators and PLUS model to study Chongqing's 1980 to 2020 urban expansion mode in its downtown, to analyze its spatial pattern changing features and to forecast the future expanding trend with revealing its drives. During 1980 to 2020, as Chongqing had a slowly rising all-directional expansion differentiation in its downtown area, its urban fragmentation has been worsening with an expansion model of “multiple-directional, multiple extended wings and multiple banded” and a pattern of “west-fast-east-slow, southwest-northeast extension”. Chongqing's downtown had experienced a rising-then-falling trend in its expansion speed and intensity, with its urban expanding direction from inner and marginal filling to exterior and urban morphology from compacting to loose, fragmentated and irregular distribution during the study period. Chongqing's downtown will expand to its vicinity in 2030, slowly, of much differentiated expanding directions, mostly influenced by economy and planning policies. Topography, GDP, distance to waters/roads, and development planning are the major drives in impacting its expanding speed. Limited by geographic conditions, under “multiple-directional, multiple-banded” urban pattern, social economic factors mainly on economy, transportation and policies are the key drives for its downtown's spatial expansion. This paper presents suggestions on fulfilling functions of economic strategy, improving economic cooperation with surrounding cities, boosting investments on infrastructure, reinforcing radiation of center city to upgrade urban internal structure and to lead the regional development. Chongqing shall incorporate eco-environmental protection into the future planning, including ecological protection areas, natural protection areas and farmland protection areas, increase resources use efficiency and plan a coordinated sustainability of city and environment.

Key words: urban spatial expansion, spatial pattern, drives, PLUS model, Chongqing's downtown

摘要： 城市时空演化特征模拟及驱动因素探究，可为区域城市发展规划和土地资源管理提供决策参考。基于城市空间扩展判别模式、空间扩展特征测度指标和PLUS模型，探究1980—2020年重庆市中心城区城市建设用地的城市扩展模式，分析空间格局变化特征，预测未来城市扩展趋势并揭示驱动因素。结果表明：1）1980—2020年，随着重庆市中心城区各方位扩展分异性缓慢上升，城市破碎化程度加剧，形成“多方向、多扩展翼、多条带”扩展模式，呈现“西快东慢、西南－东北延伸”分布格局；2）1980—2020年，重庆市中心城区扩展速度和强度呈现先上升后下降趋势，城市扩展方向由内部和边缘式填充向外部发展，城市形态由逐渐趋于紧凑向逐渐趋于松散、破碎和不规则化分布；3）未来2030年重庆市中心城区仍将向外围扩展，扩展速度有所减缓，扩展方向差异性明显，经济和规划政策因素的影响作用愈发凸显；4）地形、GDP、距水域的距离、距离道路距离和开发区规划是影响重庆市城市扩展快慢的主要驱动力。受地理条件限制，在“多方向、多条带”城市分布格局下，经济、交通、政策为核心的社会经济因素已成为驱动重庆市中心城区空间扩展的关键。建议未来充分发挥经济战略的动能作用，完善与周边城市的经济合作模式，响应区域经济高质量发展号召，增强城市的社会经济活力；加大基础设施投资，完善区县间交通路网，强化中心城市的辐射效应，以提升城市空间内部结构，带动区域发展；同时，考虑重庆市生态保护区、自然保护区及农耕地保护区域，将市政府生境保护纳入城市未来发展规划中，提高自然资源利用效率，统筹环境与城市协调可持续发展。

关键词: 城市空间扩展, 空间格局, 驱动因素, PLUS模型, 重庆市中心城区

CLC Number:

F291.1

GUAN Dongjie, LI Mengdan, ZHOU Lilei, et al.. URBAN SPATIAL EXPANSION FEATURE IDENTIFICATION AND FUTURE EVOLUTION SIMULATION OF CHONGQING'S DOWNTOWN[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(4): 133-146.

官冬杰, 李梦丹, 周李磊, 等. 重庆市中心城区城市空间扩展特征识别与未来演化模拟分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(4): 133-146.

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