Abstract:

The digital economy injects strong impetus into the upgrading of industrial structure by leveraging the dual effects of talent aggregation and technology spillover. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2010 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the impact mechanism of digital economy on industrial structure upgrading by using the double fixed effect model and the intermediary effect model. The research finds that: ① the digital economy has a positive role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, which is still valid after endogenous treatment and robustness test. ② The intermediary effect test shows that the digital economy can realize the empowerment of regional industrial structure upgrading by tapping the potential of human capital and improving the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation, but the impact of scientific and technological innovation on industrial structure upgrading is heterogeneous. ③ The regional heterogeneity test shows that the digital economy has a more significant impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern region, while the central and western regions have no significant performance.

Key words: Digital Economy, Upgrading of Industrial Structure, Human Capital, Technological Innovation

摘要： 数字经济通过发挥数字人才的集聚效益和数字技术的外溢效应为我国产业结构转型升级注入强劲动力。本文从理论层面阐释了数字经济对产业结构升级理论逻辑，利用2010~2021年中国31个省份（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型，实证检验了数字经济对产业结构升级的影响机制。研究发现：第一，数字经济对产业结构升级具有正向的推动作用，经过内生性处理和稳健性检验后，这一结论仍然成立。第二，作用机制检验发现，挖掘人力资本潜力和提升科技创新效率赋能是数字经济促进地区产业结构升级的重要路径，其中科技创新路径的作用效果存在异质性。第三，区域异质性检验发现，东部地区数字经济对产业结构升级的作用效果显著，而中西部地区则未表现出明显的作用效果。

关键词: 数字经济, 产业结构升级, 人力资本, 科技创新