Abstract: To identify the risks of the upstream of natural gas industrial chain in China, this paper establishes a risk assessment index system composed of resources, supply and demand, selects 12 key indicators such as newly-added reserve, self-supply rate, import concentration, to fully reflect the potential risk elements.Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method (EWM) are used to give subjective and objective weights to indicators, optimized with gaming theory. Cloud model is applied for classifying risk levels and comprehensive assessment, which overcomes the fuzziness and uncertainty of the traditional methods. This paper employs natural gas data from 2012 to 2023 to systematically assess the risk levels and changing trend of the upstream of China‘s natural gas industrial chain. Compound weights are high in domestic gas production, newly-added reserve, self-supply rate and external dependence, which are the core factors affecting the risk levels of the upstream. The overall risk level of the upstream of natural gas industrial chain shows a “falling-slowly rising-fluctuated stabilizing” evolution. Risk evolution can be divided into 3 phases: high from 2012 to 2015, mainly due to lagging exploration technologies, surging energy demands and growing import dependence; mitigated from 2016 to 2019, contributed by rising domestic production, improved infrastructural construction and updated industrial policies; fluctuated from 2020 to 2023, influenced by epidemic, extreme weather and waving prices, peaking in 2021. Approaches to the upstream risks of natural gas industrial chain include increasing investment in gas exploration, raising mining capabilities, boosting technical innovation, expanding global cooperation, and diversifying import sources, which can intensify the resilience of and security of upstream and whole of natural gas industrial chain. This paper provides theoretical & practical references for risk identification, prevention and control in natural gas industrial chain, as well as for strategic decision-making.

Key words: natural gas, upstream of industrial chain, cloud model, gaming theory, risk assessment

摘要： 为了识别并评估我国天然气产业链上游的风险水平，构建涵盖资源、供给和需求3个维度的风险评价指标体系，选取新增探明储量、自给率、进口集中度等12项关键指标，较为全面地反映天然气产业链上游的潜在风险要素。采用层次分析法与熵权法分别赋予指标主观与客观权重，并引入博弈论进行组合权重优化，提高了权重设定的科学性；进一步利用云模型进行风险等级划分与综合评价，以克服传统评价方法在处理模糊性与不确定性方面的局限性。基于2012—2023年天然气发展相关数据，系统评估了我国天然气产业链上游的风险水平及其变化趋势。研究表明：1）国内产气量、新增探明储量、自给率和对外依存度等资源供给类指标的组合权重值较高，是影响上游风险水平的核心因素。2）天然气产业链上游整体风险水平呈现“先下降，再缓慢上升，后波动趋稳”的动态演化过程，并表现出较强的阶段性特征。3）研究期内风险演化大致可分为3个阶段：2012—2015年风险水平较高，主要受勘探技术滞后、能源需求激增、进口依赖上升等因素影响；2016—2019年风险有所缓解，国内产能增长、基础设施建设与产业政策优化显著降低风险水平；2020—2023年风险波动加剧，受疫情冲击、极端气候和价格波动等因素叠加影响，2021年出现极高风险峰值。4）应对天然气产业链上游风险的有效路径包括加大天然气勘探开发投入、推动储采能力提升、强化相关企业技术创新，同时深化气源开发国际合作，完善多元化进口机制，以增强天然气产业链上游及整体的韧性与安全性。研究成果可为我国天然气产业链上游风险识别、防控及战略决策提供理论依据与实践参考。

关键词: 天然气, 产业链上游, 云模型, 博弈论, 风险评价