Abstract:

Energy is one of necessary productive factors. Its consumption is quantitatively related to the import and export in China. This paper, based on the data from 1985 to 2005, studies the coordinating relationship and Granger consequence between energy consumption and import & export with the results implying a coordinating relationship between energy consumption and import & export, of which export is the Granger cause for energy consumption and the energy consumption is the Granger cause for import.

Key words:

energy consumption; import and export; coordinating analysis; Granger Causality Test; error medication model

摘要：

能源作为必不可少的生产要素之一，其消费与进出口之间存在着一定的数量关系。结合1985—2005年的统计数据，实证研究了我国能源消费与进口、出口的协整关系和Granger因果关系。结果表明,能源消费与进口、出口之间存在协整关系，并且出口是能源消费的格兰杰原因，能源消费是进口的格兰杰原因。

关键词: 能源消费；进出口；协整分析；Granger因果关系检验；误差修正模型