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IMPACTS OF CHINA-US TRADE CONFLICT ON CHINA'S IMPORTED US-GAS BASED ON DID MODEL
LI Hongxun, ZHAO Huijie
Resources & Industries 2021, 23 (
5
): 51-60. DOI:
10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20211014.010
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This paper, based on China's imported gas data from nine countries during 2017 January to 2020 June, uses difference-in-difference (DID) model to analyze impacts of China-US trade conflict on China's imported US-gas with conclusion that the conflict has led to an obvious negative impact. This paper combines the conflicting stages with China's taxation time to divide the conflict into 6 stages. As the conflict develops, its impacts show staged features. Stability test reveals that this conflict does not exert large impacts on gas imported from other countries. This paper provides suggestions on actively dealing with trade conflict and diminishing trade adverse balance, making staged trade agreements to avoid the China-US uncertain relation, and boosting cooperation with other gas producers in order to secure China's gas imports.
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NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECAST IN CHINA BASED ON GRAY-PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE COMBINATION MODEL
LI Hongxun, NIE Hui
Resources & Industries 2019, 21 (
6
): 9-18. DOI:
10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.004
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147
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Natural gas is a vital part of low carbon energy by its efficiency, clean and safe feature under the world's low carbon economy. China is currently at the critical stage of transforming to low carbon economy. Natural gas as a basic energy supports the fast growth of economy. This paper uses gray model to predict the factors of natural gas demands and their developing trend, and applies partial least square regression model to study factors in consideration of their mutual linear attributes. Regression function is applied to forecast Chinas demand for natural gas from 2018 to 2027 with the result showing a stable but slow increasing trend, a little down in 2023, annual growth rate of gross demand is at 10%. Natural gas consumption proportion will be over 10% in 2025.
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