This paper estimates Jiangsu's carbon emission and absorption and forecasts its future carbon
balance potential, offering reference for China to reach strategic objectives
of “2030 carbon peak,
and 2060 carbon neutralization” (“dual carbon” objectives), and to materialize ecological civilization
construction. This paper establishes an indictor system to forecast Jiangsu's carbon balance potential and improves
STIRPAT model based on 1996 to 2019 carbon emission data and LMDI factors,
which is used to forecast Jiangsu’s 2020 to 2060 carbon emission under 9
scenarios. GM(1, 1) is employed to forecast Jiangsu’s future carbon absorption
and 2004 to 2060 carbon balance evolution. Results show that Jiangsu’s carbon
emission grows fast, most contributed by population, income and energy
structure, but offset by energy intensity and carbon emission intensity.
According to the forecasted results of STIRPAT model, nine scenarios can be
classified as high carbonhigh growth, intermediate carbonintermediate growth and low carbonlow growth in terms of cabon peak and time. The premium scenario 3
in the lowcarbonlow growth can reach carbon peak as early as in 2029, at 330 0386 kt carbon dioxide, and decline to 242
7419 kt in 2060.
Jiangsu’s carbon absorption is forecasted to growth slowly, up to 30 mt carbon
dioxide in 2053, and 30955 84 mt in 2060. Jiangsu will face a lagging carbon balance, with
a peak deficit up to 302860 3 mt carbon dioxide in 2029, falling to 211786 0 mt in 2060. Carbon balance pressure
index will fall to 784 in 2060 from 1216 in 2025, suggesting a big pressure over Jiangsu. Jiangsu has a
limited ecological carbon absorption capacity, facing a big challenge on carbon
balance even according to the premium scenario 3. This paper presents
suggestions on adjusting energy high carbon structure, boosting green technical
innovation, decreasing carbon emission, increasing green land area, protecting
natural environment, raising carbon absorption capacity, developing green
carbon reduction and technical carbonfixing, diminishing carbon deficit and mitigating cabon balance
pressure from carbon emission, carbon absorption and carbon balance, which
helps China reach 2060 carbon neutralization.