Abstract:

During low-carbon economic times, development and utilization of new energies will be a vital means to raise global competitiveness for each country. In order to discover the factors on new energy development, this paper, based on carbon dioxide emission, energy prices and new energy consumption to total energy consumption data from 1990 to 2008, establishes a regress equation to analyze the factors. Environmental issues triggered by industrial emission have no limits on development of new energy, which largely depends upon prices. To develop new energy is a useful way to avoid global market risks. By analyzing the costs of new energy, the factors on new energy development comprises high production cost and poor technology, so a technical innovation will play a key role in new energy development.

Key words: energy price, new energy, technical innovation, carbon dioxide

摘要：

在低碳经济时代，新能源的开发与利用已成为各国在新世纪提升国际竞争力的重要途径。为了找出影响我国新能源发展的关键影响因素及规律，本文利用1990—2008年间的二氧化碳排放量、能源价格、新能源消耗量占总能源消费量比重等数据，构建了一个回归方程。分析发现1990—2008年，工业排放带来的环境问题并没有成为影响新能源发展的主要因素，新能源的发展主要还是由能源价格所决定的，发展新能源依然是规避未来国际能源市场供需风险的途径。通过对新能源产品成本的分析，可知造成我国新能源发展现状的根本因素是较高的生产成本及落后的技术。因此，新能源发展成败的关键依然是技术创新。

关键词: 能源价格, 新能源, 技术创新, 二氧化碳