不同技术方向的动力电池梯次利用产业发展路径研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20241012.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国新能源汽车的普及带动电池退役量急剧增加，退役动力电池梯次利用的产业化发展已势在必行，但不同的技术方向直接影响产业发展的路径和结果。为了合理选择投资方向和制定配套政策，在实践调研的基础上，从系统的角度出发分析产业发展的关键影响因素，以电网侧储能应用场景为例，梳理不同技术方向的规模、成本、收益和利润，建立系统动力学模型并进行了仿真对比分析。研究发现：1）“拆解重组”和“整包利用”是两类主流技术方向但各有优劣势；2）由于不受品牌限制，“拆解重组”技术方向的规模扩张速度比“整包利用”更有优势；3）得益于规模效应，“拆解重组”技术方向的投资效益在初期稍优于“整包利用”，但随着时间推移两者之间的差距逐渐减小，后者更具有长期发展优势；4）设备成本与电池成本是关键控制成本，且前者不断下降而后者相反，对于“整包利用”而言，设备成本占比下降速度更快但可能出现波动；5）如果解决不同品牌车企间各自为政且竞争的难题，“整包利用”的规模扩张速度和经济效益将明显改善。据此提出根据国家发展战略选择技术方向、提供初期资金支持、启动适配性补贴政策、促进上下游企业合作以及实施品牌间有限信息共享五条建议。

关键词: 系统动力学, 动力电池, 梯次利用, 产业发展路径, 技术方向

Abstract: China‘s fast growing electrical vehicles leads to sharply rising used batteries, whose graded utilization needs to be industrialized, but its path and results are directly influenced by different technical directions. This paper, aiming at choosing appropriate investing direction and making matching policies, analyzes the key factors of industrial development from perspective of system based on practices, summarizes scales, costs, gains and profits under different technical directions by taking grid energy storage a scenario, and establishes a systematic dynamics model that is simulated for comparison. Two major technical directions, “decomposing-reconstructing” and “whole package utilization”, have their own pros and cons; however, “decomposing-reconstructing” direction prevails in expansion speed with no constraints of brands. Thanks to scale effect, “decomposing-reconstructing” direction beats the “whole package utilization” at the initial stage, but the latter will be gradually overcoming in a long term. Facilities cost and batter cost are the key factors, the former is falling while the latter is rising, facilities cost proportion has a faster/fluctuated falling compared to the “whole package utilization”, whose growing speed and gains will be largely improved if issues among different brands can be resolved and different EV makers can be united. This paper presents suggestions on selecting technical directions in accordance with national strategies, providing initial funds, offering matching allowance policies, promoting upper-to down-steam cooperation and implementing limited information sharing among different brands.

Key words: system dynamics, power battery, grading utilization, industrial developing path, technical directions

中图分类号:

F49
F832.48

张浩, 张志强, 余圆圆. 不同技术方向的动力电池梯次利用产业发展路径研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(5): 154-167.

ZHANG Hao, ZHANG Zhiqiang, YU Yuanyuan. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPING PATHS TO GRADED UTILIZATION OF POWER BATTERIES UNDER DIFFERENT TECHNICAL DIRECTIONS[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(5): 154-167.

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