长江经济带城市韧性动态演进特征与区域差异分析

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20250702.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 城市是社会生产生活的重要空间，正面临自然灾害、公共安全事件等挑战。科学评估城市韧性对推动长江经济带可持续和高质量发展与优化国土空间布局具有重要意义。论文旨在构建多维城市韧性评价体系解析长江经济带城市韧性时空分异规律，揭示区域差异的形成机理，为制定差异化韧性提升策略提供科学依据。论文基于2010—2022年长江经济带城市面板数据，从经济韧性、社会韧性、工程韧性、生态韧性和制度韧性5个维度构建城市韧性综合指标体系，并运用熵权TOPSIS法测算城市韧性综合评价指数，利用重心-标准差椭圆分析城市韧性空间演进，基于核密度估计方法刻画城市韧性的绝对差异和动态演进特征，并运用Dagum基尼系数分析城市韧性相对差异。结果表明：1）长江经济带及上、中、下游城市韧性水平呈波动上升趋势，但整体城市韧性并不强，始终以低韧性为主，空间上呈现上下游高、中游低的格局，空间演进整体表现为东北—西南走向；2）长江经济带及上、中、下游三大区域城市韧性绝对差异逐渐缩小，上游存在明显的两极分化现象；3）总体差异、区域内和区域间差异均呈显著下降趋势。该研究对提升长江经济带城市韧性，促进城市韧性协调发展和新型城镇化建设，实现城市可持续发展具有重要参考意义。

关键词: 城市韧性, 动态演进, 区域差异, 核密度估计, Dagum基尼系数, 长江经济带

Abstract: Cities are the vital spaces for social production and living, and are being challenged by natural disasters and public security events. Evaluation of urban resilience is of significance for boosting sustainable development and optimizing land planning in Yangtze River economic zone. This paper, aiming at constructing multiple dimensional urban resilience evaluation system to analyze the spatiotemporal variance rules and mechanism, and to provide references for making differentiated resilience-raising measures, uses 2010 to 2022 urban panel data of Yangtze River economic zone to establish a urban resilience comprehensive index system from economic, social, engineering, ecological and institutional resilience, and applies entropy weights TOPSIS to estimate the urban resilience comprehensive evaluation index, employs centroid-standard deviation ellipse to analyze the evolution of urban resilience, and depicts the absolute variance and dynamic evolution of urban resilience via kernel density estimation, and uses Dagum Gini
coefficient to study its relative variance. Urban resilience shows a waveringly rising trend in Yangtze River economic zone and its upper-, middle- and down-stream cities, but not as strong generally, high in upper- and down-stream and low in the middle-stream, with spatial evolution showing northeast-southwest striking. Absolute variance of urban resilience among Yangtze River economic zone and three regional cities is shrinking, but the upper-stream displays a polarity. Overall variance, intra-regional variance and inter-regional variance has dramatically dropped. This paper provides reference for raising urban resilience, promoting its coordinated growth and new urbanization and reaching urban sustainability in Yangtze River economic zone.

Key words: urban resilience, dynamic evolution, regional variance, kernel density estimation;Dagum Gini coefficient, Yangtze River economic zone

中图分类号:

F207

肖鹰, 何蕾, 李梦可, 余英, 蒙继英, 周叶. 长江经济带城市韧性动态演进特征与区域差异分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(4): 96-108.

XIAO Ying, HE Lei, LI Mengke, YU Ying, MENG Jiying, ZHOU Ye. DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND REGIONAL VARIANCE OF URBAN RESILIENCE IN YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(4): 96-108.

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