新质生产力对中国西部地区技术进步的影响研究——基于空间杜宾模型

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20250702.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 论文基于空间杜宾模型，利用1990—2022年中国西部地区84个地级及以上城市面板数据，探讨新质生产力对中国西部地区技术进步的影响。研究结果显示：1）西部地区城市规模与技术进步存在倒“U”型曲线关系，目前西部地区城市规模尚未达到拐点，城市规模扩大对技术进步仍存在正向促进作用；2）人口密度、经济发展质量、房价收入比和教育支出对西部地区技术进步的直接效应为正且显著，经济发展质量、外国直接投资和教育支出对西部地区技术进步的间接效应为正且显著，经济发展质量、外国直接投资和教育支出对西部地区技术进步的总效应为正且显著，其中经济发展质量和教育支出对本市、邻市乃至整个地区的技术进步指数均有正向促进作用，且教育支出对技术进步的正向促进作用最强；3）居民储蓄对西部地区技术进步的直接效应为负且显著，人口密度、居民储蓄、房价收入比、通货膨胀率对西部地区技术进步的间接效应为负且显著，居民储蓄、房价收入比、通货膨胀率对技术进步的总效应为负且显著，其中居民储蓄对技术进步的直接效应、间接效应和总效应皆为负，是抑制西部地区技术进步的关键因素。因此建议中国西部地区应通过适度扩大城市规模、加大教育支出、提高经济发展质量、吸引外国直接投资、刺激居民消费等措施，充分发挥新质生产力对技术进步的促进作用。这对于实现科技强国、促进西部地区社会经济全面振兴具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 新质生产力, 中国西部, 空间聚集, 技术进步

Abstract: This paper uses spatial Durbin model and 1990 to 2022 panel data of Western China's 84 prefectures to study the impacts of new quality productivity on technical advances in western China. There is an upside-down “U-shaped” relation between urban sizes and technical advances, and the urban sizes have yet reached the turning point. That's means appropriately expanding urban sizes play a positive role in western China's technical advances. Direct effects of population density, economic quality and house price/income ratio and educational expense are positive and outstanding, indirect effects of economic quality, foreign direct investment and educational expense are positive and outstanding, the total effects of economic quality, foreign direct investment and educational expense are positive and outstanding, of which economic quality and educational expense play a positive promotion on technical advances in the local prefecture, its neighboring cities and even the whole area, educational expense plays the most. Direct effects of residential savings are negative and outstanding, indirect effects of population density, residential savings, house price/income ratio and inflation ratio are negative and outstanding, the total effects of residential savings, house price/income ratio and inflation ratio are negative and outstanding, of which direct, indirect and total effects of residential savings are negative, a key factor in blocking technical advances in western China. This paper presents suggestions on appropriately enlarging urban sizes, increasing educational expense, raising economic quality, attracting foreign direct investment, encouraging residential consumption to the promotion of new quality productivity on technical advances, which is significant to realizes technical power and to boost economy in western China.

Key words: new quality productivity, western China, spatial aggregation, technical advances

中图分类号:

F207

李燕, 黄谊. 新质生产力对中国西部地区技术进步的影响研究——基于空间杜宾模型[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(4): 59-70.

LI Yan, HUANG Yi. IMPACTS OF NEW QUALITY PRODUCTIVITY ON TECHNICAL ADVANCES IN WESTERN CHINA BASED ON SPATIAL DURBIN MODEL[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(4): 59-70.

参考文献

蔡湘杰, 贺正楚, 2024. 新质生产力何以影响全要素生产率: 科技创新效应的机理与检验[J]. 当代经济管理, 46(10): 1-14.〔CAI X J, HE Z C, 2024. How new quality productive forces affect the total factor productivity: the mechanism and the test of the effect of scientific and technological innovation[J]. Contemporary Economic Management, 46(10): 1-14.〕

崔佳宁, 史丽媛, 谢博婕, 2022. 技术与产业趋同能否带动区域经济发展: 基于动态空间杜宾模型的分析[J]. 哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版)(2): 15-25.〔CUI J N, SHI L Y, XIE B J, 2022. Can the convergence of technology and industry drive the development of regional economy: a dynamic spatial Durbin Model based study [J]. Journal of Harbin University of Commerce (Social Science Edition)(2): 15-25.〕

戴魁早, 刘友金, 2020. 市场化改革能推进产业技术进步吗?: 中国高技术产业的经验证据[J]. 金融研究(2): 71-90.〔DAI K Z, LIU Y J, 2020. Can market-oriented reforms promote the development of industrial technology?: empirical evidence from China's high-tech industries [J]. Journal of Financial Research(2): 71-90.〕

范剑勇, 冯猛, 李方文, 2014. 产业集聚与企业全要素生产率[J]. 世界经济, 37(5): 51-73.

方江山, 2024. 紧紧围绕核心标志加快发展新质生产力[J]. 学术前沿(11): 4-9.〔FANG J S, 2024. Focus on the core indicators to accelerate the development of new quality productive forces [J]. Frontier(11): 4-9.〕

桂黄宝, 张志昊, 李文静, 等, 2024. 绿色技术创新促进新质生产力形成的机制研究[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报(社会科学版), 41(1): 21-30.〔GUI H B, ZHANG Z H, LI W J, et al., 2024. A study on the mechanism of green technology innovation in promoting the formation of new quality productive forces [J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Social Sciences Edition), 41(1): 21-30.〕

何舜辉, 杜德斌, 焦美琪, 等, 2017. 中国地级以上城市创新能力的时空格局演变及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 37(7): 1014-1022.〔HE S H, DU D B, JIAO M Q, et al., 2017. Spatial-temporal characteristics of urban innovation capability and impact factors analysis in China[J]. Scientia Geographic Science, 37(7): 1014-1022.〕

黄奇帆, 2024. 新质生产力新在哪[J]. 中国石油和化工产业观察(2): 40-41.

贾康, 2024. 新质生产力的概念、内涵与体系: 以“创新”促“质变”[J]. 东北财经大学学报(4): 19-26.〔JIA K, 2024. Concept, connotation, and system of new quality productive forces: promoting “qualitative change” through “innovation”[J]. Journal of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics (4): 19-26.〕

李光勤, 李梦娇, 2024. 中国省域新质生产力水平评价、空间格局及其演化特征[J]. 经济地理, 44(8): 116-125.〔LI G Q, LI M J, 2024. Provincial-level new quality productive forces in China: evaluation, spatial pattern and evolution characteristics [J]. Economic Geography, 44(8): 116-125.〕

李晓华, 2023. 新质生产力的主要特征与形成机制[J]. 人民论坛(21): 15-17.

廖恒, 魏海玉, 肖艺璇, 等, 2024. 新质生产力的形成机制与金融政策优化[J]. 财经科学(6): 77-86.〔LIAO H, WEI H Y, XIAO Y X, et al., 2024. Mechanism of forming new quality productive forces and optimization of financial policies[J]. Finance & Economics(6): 77-86.〕

刘承良, 刘向杰, 2024. 城市创新创业活力与新兴产业核心技术: 空间极化、规模门槛与中介效应[J]. 中国软科学(3): 212-224.〔LIU C L, LIU X J, 2024. Urban innovation and entrepreneurship vitality and core technologies of emerging industries: spatial polarization, scale threshold and mediating effect[J]. China Soft Science(3): 212-224.〕

卢江, 王晓楠, 2024. 因地制宜发展新质生产力的现实依据与实施路径: 来自西部地区九大城市群的经验证据[J]. 重庆大学学报(社会科学版), 30(5): 13-28.〔LU J, WANG X N, 2024. Practical basis and implementation path of fostering new quality productive forces in line with local conditions: empirical evidence from nine urban agglomerations in western China[J]. Journal of Chongqing University (Social Science Edition), 30(5): 13-28.〕

罗杰, 2024. 新质生产力在促进中国贸易经济发展中的作用机制探究[J]. 价格月刊(10): 41-47.〔LUO J, 2024. Research on the mechanism of new quality productive forces in promoting the development of China's trade economy [J]. Price Monthly(10): 41-47.〕

毛世平, 张琛, 2024. 以发展农业新质生产力推进农业强国建设[J]. 农业经济问题(4): 36-46.〔MAO S P, ZHANG C, 2024. Promote the construction of an agricultural power through the development of new quality agricultural productivity [J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy(4): 36-46.〕

齐承水, 2024. 如何理解“新质生产力本身就是绿色生产力”[J]. 经济学家(7): 15-23.〔QI C S, 2024. How to understand that "new quality productivity itself is green productivity" [J]. Economist(7): 15-23.〕

秦佳佳, 2019. 城市规模分布对区域创新效率的影响研究: 基于SFA-Tobit模型的分析[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学.〔QIN J J, 2019. Study on the influence of urban scale distribution on region innovation efficiency: analysis based on SFA-Tobit model [D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University.〕

孙超, 吕凯迪, 武普照, 2024. 加快发展新质生产力的公共投资政策研究[J]. 财政监督(18): 80-86.

孙亚男, 刘燕伟, 傅念豪, 等, 2024. 中国新质生产力的增长模式、区域差异与协调发展[J]. 财经研究, 50(6): 4-18, 33.〔SUN Y M, LIU Y W, FU N H, et al., 2024. The growth patterns, regional disparity, and coordinated development of China's new quality productive forces[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 50(6): 4-18, 33.〕

孙艳, 张衡, 石志恒, 2019. 城市规模与产业结构对西部城市的协同减贫效应研究: 基于西部地区59个地级市的面板数据[J]. 吉林工商学院学报, 35(2): 24-29, 38.〔SUN Y, ZHANG H, SHI Z H, 2019. Study on synergistic poverty reduction effect of urban scale and industrial structure on western cities: analysis of panel data based on 59 prefecture-level cities in western region [J]. Journal of Jilin Business and Technology College, 35(2): 24-29, 38.〕

王必锋, 赖志花, 2024. 生产性服务业数字化转型、空间集聚与制造业技术创新研究[J]. 技术与创新管理, 45(4): 363-373.〔WANG B F, LAI Z H, 2024. Research on the digital transformation and spatial agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing technology innovation[J]. Technology and Innovation Management, 45(4): 363-373.〕

王颖, 高升, 2021. 我国远洋渔业技术进步空间溢出效应分析: 基于动态空间杜宾模型[J]. 上海管理科学, 43(4): 89-94.〔WANG Y, GAO S, 2021. The analysis on spatial spillover effect of technical progress in China's pelagic fishery: based on dynamic Space Dubin model [J]. Shanghai Management Science, 43(4): 89-94.〕

吴继飞, 万晓榆, 2024. 中国新质生产力发展水平测度、区域差距及动态规律[J]. 技术经济, 43(4): 1-14.〔WU J F, WAN X Y, 2024. Measurement, regional difference and dynamic evolution of the development level of China's new quality productive forces [J]. Journal of Technology Economics, 43(4): 1-14.〕

夏杰长, 丰晓旭, 姚战琪, 2020. 知识密集型服务业集聚对中国区域创新的影响[J]. 社会科学战线(3): 60-69.〔XIA J C, FENG X X, YAO Z Q, 2020. A study on the impact of knowledge-intensive service industry agglomeration on regional innovation in China[J]. Social Science Front (3): 60-69.〕

谢建国, 张宁, 2020. 技术差距、技术溢出与中国的技术进步: 基于中美行业贸易数据的实证分析[J]. 世界经济研究(1): 12-24, 135.〔XIE J G, ZHANG N, 2020. Technological gap, technological spillover and technological progress: an empirical analysis based on Sino-US industry trade data [J]. World Economy Studies (1): 12-24, 135.〕

徐建中, 王曼曼, 2019. 制造业集聚、技术进步与绿色创新绩效: 对我国省际面板数据的实证分析[J]. 科技进步与对策, 36(12): 54-61.〔XU J Z, WANG M M, 2019. Manufacturing agglomeration, technological progress and green innovation performance: an empirical analysis based on China's provincial panel data [J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 36(12): 54-61.〕

徐涛, 2013. 产业集聚、企业特征与制造业技术进步: 基于江苏省制造业行业的研究[J]. 华东经济管理, 27(2): 7-12.〔XU T, 2013. Industrial agglomeration, enterprise features and technology progress in manufacturing: analysis based on manufacturing industries in Jiangsu province [J]. East China Economic Management, 27(2): 7-12.〕

许嘉扬, 郭福春, 2024. 新质生产力与经济高质量发展: 动力机制与政策路径[J]. 浙江学刊(4): 43-50.〔XU J Y, GUO F C, 2024. New quality productive forces and high-quality economic development: dynamic mechanism and policy path [J]. Zhejiang Academic Journal(4): 43-50.〕

姚凤阁, 梁珈源, 汪晓梅, 等, 2022. 数字金融、技术进步与区域经济高质量发展[J]. 统计与决策(18): 142-146.

尹西明, 陈劲, 王华峰, 等, 2024. 强化科技创新引领加快发展新质生产力[J/OL]. 科学与科学技术管理.(2024-02-21) [2025-04-09]. https://link.cnki.net/urlid/12.1117.G3.20240221.1012.002

张志杰, 马岚, 2024. 教育促进新质生产力发展的理论逻辑与路径[J]. 河北师范大学学报(教育科学版), 26(3): 32-40.〔ZHANG Z J, MA L, 2024. Cultivating new quality productive forces through education: a theoretical framework and strategic approaches [J]. Journal of Hebei Normal University (Educational Science), 26(3): 32-40.〕

赵思萌, 赵作权, 赵紫威, 2023. 中国技术创新的大规模空间集聚与趋势[J]. 经济地理, 43(11): 126-134.〔ZHAO S M, ZHAO Z Q, ZHAO Z W, 2023. Large-scale spatial agglomeration of technical innovation in China and its trend [J]. Economic Geography, 43(11): 126-134.〕

周文, 许凌云, 2023. 论新质生产力: 内涵特征与重要着力点[J]. 改革(10): 1-13.〔ZHOU W, XU L Y, 2023. On new quality productivity: connotative characteristics and important focus[J]. Reform(10): 1-13.〕

庄定鹏, 廖东声, 2024. 新质生产力: 水平测算、演变格局与收敛规律[J]. 工业技术经济, 43(11): 3-12.〔ZHUANG D P, LIAO D S, 2024. New quality productivity: level assessment, evolution patterns, and convergence laws [J]. Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy, 43(11): 3-12.〕

[1]	张鹏, 王博. 新质生产力发展背景下的产业用地配置优化研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(6): 92-97.
[2]	尹庆民, 戴敏. 创新型人力资本对产业结构升级影响的实证研究——基于技术进步的中介效应 [J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(2): 124-140.
[3]	高新伟, 朱源. 科研投入抑制碳排放了吗？——基于LMDI模型和STIRPAT模型的碳排放影响因素分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(6): 37-45.
[4]	孟娜，张艳荣. 从“资源诅咒”视角探究河北省威县产业扶贫路径[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(3): 74-80.
[5]	宋敏，马艳霞，汪琦. 金融发展、技术进步与全要素能源效率——基于中介效应的实证研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(2): 69-78.
[6]	任志安，陈博文. 基于生态效率的淮河流域绿色发展困境及其破解对策研究 [J]. 资源与产业, 2018, 20(5): 16-27.
[7]	孙维峰，王艺申. 自然资源依赖、技术进步与经济增长 [J]. 资源与产业, 2018, 20(1): 83-89.
[8]	查奇芬，成鑫. . 技术进步对中国区域碳排放的影响研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2017, 19(6): 71-77.
[9]	王千. 河北省建设用地扩张与经济增长的脱钩分析 [J]. 资源与产业, 2017, 19(4): 81-87.