城市人均能源消费时空差异及收敛性分析——基于中国243个地级城市数据

doi:10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在多种影响因素作用下，区域能源消费差异已经严重影响高质量发展观下经济结构转型以及中国能源战略目标的实现。系统研究能源结构和能源消费变化规律，以期促进经济、社会、能源、环境协调发展，实现能源结构的优化配置，促进经济可持续发展。基于2005—2019年中国243个地级市人均能源消费面板数据，分析人均能源消费量的时空分布和演变特征，分别采用σ收敛、β收敛以及俱乐部收敛检验等方法识别出城市人均能源消费量的收敛性水平，进一步运用有序回归模型研究在不同收敛水平下城市资源禀赋和初始资源发展状态等影响因素对城市人均能源消费量转移路径的作用机制。研究表明：中国243个地级市人均能源消费不存在整体性收敛，但存在俱乐部收敛情况，可以收敛形成4个收敛俱乐部和1个发散俱乐部；能源消费初始水平、城市产业结构、对外开放水平和人均消费水平是影响其俱乐部收敛的重要因素。对于人均高能耗俱乐部，对外开放水平具有负向作用，城市经济水平和工业化水平都具有正向作用；对于平均能耗俱乐部，各个影响因素的作用效果并不显著；而对于低能耗俱乐部，城市经济水平和工业化水平都具有正向促进作用，对外开放水平则具有负向作用。建议针对各俱乐部的情况，制定相应的政策和调整措施，保持适当的人口增长速度，提高科技创新水平，调整产业结构，对城市能源消费降级。

关键词: 城市人均能源消费, 时空差异, 俱乐部收敛, 影响因素

Abstract:

Regional energy consumption variance has been negatively impacting economic structural transformation and China ‘s energy strategies due to multiple factors. Energy structure and energy consumption trend are studied to promote a coordinated development among economy, society, energy and environment, and materialize an optimized energy structural allocation and boost economic sustainability.This paper uses China ‘s 243 prefectures ‘ urban per capita energy consumption panel data from 2005 to 2019 to study the temporal-spatial distribution and evolution, and applies σ, β and club convergence to recognize its converging level of urban per capita energy consumption, and employs ordered regression model to study the mechanism of urban resources and initial resource development on urban per capita energy consumption transferring path. In China ‘s 243 prefectures, the urban per capita energy consumption has no overall convergence but club convergence, 4 converging clubs and 1 diverging club. Initial energy consumption level, urban industrial structure, opening-up level and per capital consumption level are the vital factors impacting club convergence. Opening-up level plays a negative role, and urban economic level and industrialized level play positively in clubs with higher per capita energy consumption. The reverse applies in clubs with lower per capita energy consumption. All factors work little in clubs with average. This paper presents suggestions on making appropriate policies and adjusting measures, maintaining proper population growth rate, increasing innovative level, altering industrial structure and degrading urban energy consumption.

Key words: urban per capita energy consumption, temporal-spatial variance, club convergence; factors

中图分类号:

F205

王帮俊, 崔林玉. 城市人均能源消费时空差异及收敛性分析——基于中国243个地级城市数据[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 31-41.

WANG Bangjun, CUI Linyu.

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL VARIANCE AND CONVERGENCE OF URBAN PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION BASED ON CHINA ‘S 243 PREFECTURES DATA [J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(3): 31-41.

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