陕西省各市农业碳排放效率及其影响因素分析

doi:10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农业是第二大温室气体排放源，也是碳排放的重要来源之一。如何兼顾农业发展与生态环境保护，关系到农业高质量发展目标的实现。选取2005—2020年陕西省10个地级市的面板数据，将超效率SBM模型和ML指数模型相结合，从静态和动态两个角度测算陕西省各城市的农业碳排放效率，并采用Tobit模型实证分析影响陕西省各市农业碳排放效率的主要因素。通过超效率SBM模型计算各市静态农业碳排放效率，发现在研究期内西安的农业碳排放效率稳步上升，且其农业碳排放效率值较高；商洛市农业碳排放效率值在1以上，农业碳排放效率较高；铜川市、渭南市和榆林市的农业碳排放效率值一直在1以下，未出现改善趋势；其余城市的农业碳排放效率呈现不同的波动趋势。运用ML指数测算动态农业碳排放效率发现，陕西省各市农业碳排放效率的改善大多来源于技术进步的贡献，而技术效率未能起到明显促进农业碳排放效率提高的作用。通过Tobit模型实证分析陕西省各市农业碳排放效率的主要影响因素发现：农村经济发展水平和农业碳排放效率之间存在显著的正向关系，表明农村经济发展水平越高，相应的农业碳排放效率越高；产值结构与耕地规模和农业碳排放效率之间有显著的负向关系，表明陕西省各市农业产值结构合理化程度越低，越不利于农业碳排放效率的提高；耕地规模越大，越不利于农业碳排放效率的提高；城镇化水平与农作物受灾程度和农业碳排放效率呈负相关关系，但结果不显著。因此，陕西省各市在提高农业技术效率同时，应促使产业结构合理化，强化耕地保护，提升城镇化水平，降低农作物受灾程度，从而提高各市农业高质量发展水平。

关键词: 农业碳排放效率, 超效率SBM模型, ML指数, Tobit模型, 陕西省

Abstract: Agriculture is the second major source of greenhouse gas emission, also one of key carbon emissions. How to develop agriculture while protecting ecological environment is related to realizing high-quality agricultural development.This paper uses Shaanxi ‘s 10 prefectures ‘ panel data from 2005 to 2020, combined with super-efficiency SBM model and ML index model, to estimate their agricultural carbon emission efficiencies, and employs Tobit model to study the major influencing factors.Static agricultural carbon emission efficiency estimated by super-efficiency SBM model is rising and at a high level in Xi ‘an. It is above 1 and also at a high level in Shangluo, but consistently below 1 with no improvement in Tongchuan, Weinan and Yulin, fluctuating in other cities. Dynamic agricultural carbon emission efficiencies from ML index have improved mainly due to technical advances, which has not greatly contributed to their increase. Factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Shaanxi ‘s cities based on Tobit model suggest a notable positive relation between agricultural economy and carbon emission efficiency, indicating the more advanced economy, the higher carbon emission efficiency.Production structure and farmland scale have an outstanding negative relation with agricultural carbon emission efficiency, implying that a lower rationalization degree of agricultural production structure, or a larger farmland scale, is not favorable for increasing agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Urbanization level and hazarded crops are generally negatively related to agricultural carbon emission efficiency.This paper presents suggestions for Shaanxi province on increasing agricultural technologies, promoting industrial structural rationalization, raising urbanization level, decreasing crop hazarded degree, and boosting a high-quality agricultural development.

Key words: agricultural carbon emission efficiency, super-efficiency SBM model, ML index, Tobit model; Shaanxi province

中图分类号:

F205

冯飞, 冯嘉妮. 陕西省各市农业碳排放效率及其影响因素分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 10-18.

FENG Fei, FENG Jiani. AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSION EFFICIENCY AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SHAANXI CITIES[J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(3): 10-18.

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