Abstract: Hydropower is the key renewable energy to reach China‘s carbon peak, but it faces large ecological risks. Where is the southwestern China going in the future as the biggest hydropower developing area? Development of hydropower in the southwestern China relates not only to a quality economic growth, but also to the objective of "developing while protecting, protecting while developing" in Yangtze River stream, and even to China’s strategic carbon peak. This paper, aiming at the ecological risk evaluation in hydropower development, establishes a Bayesian network analysis framework in evaluating ecological risks in hydropower development, and studies its risk transmission mechanism from conditional probability. An entropy evaluation model is set up combined with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios to forecast the hydropower demand in the southwestern during 2018 to 2030 based on 2017 as a benchmark year. Spatial and scenario differentiation of ecological risks during hydropower development are studied from city and stream perspectives. The risks are positively related to hydropower amounts, will be at a middle to high risk level during 2018 to 2030, which may be under control if sustainable development policies are in place. Hydropower development risks vary with cities and streams, which requires appropriate sustainable development policies. 

Key words: hydropower development, ecological risk transmission mechanism, Bayesian network, shared socioeconomic pathway

摘要： 水电是助推中国碳达峰的关键可再生能源，但水电开发面临着显著的生态风险。西南水电基地作为中国最大的水能资源开发区域，未来应该何去何从？西南水电开发不仅涉及西南地区的高质量发展，更是实现长江流域“在保护中发展，在发展中保护”目标、推进国家碳达峰的战略问题。针对水电开发生态风险评估问题，论文构建了水电开发生态风险评估的贝叶斯网络分析框架，从条件概率视角刻画生态风险传导机制，建立了水电开发生态风险的熵权评价模型，结合共享社会经济路径情景体系，通过社会经济指标设置情景，并以2017年为基准年模拟2018—2030年西南水电需求，进而从城市和流域视角预测不同情景下水电开发对西南水电基地生态风险的空间分异、情景分异特征。研究结果表明：水电开发生态风险与水力发电量正相关；西南水电基地2018—2030年将处于中高风险状态，唯有可持续发展政策可有效管控生态风险；西南水电基地的不同城市、流域对水电开发呈现出显著的空间异质特征，必须设计因地制宜、因水制宜的可持续发展政策才能够提升生态风险管控成效。

关键词: 水电开发, 生态风险传导机制, 贝叶斯网络, 共享社会经济路径