THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND VARIATIONS IN
ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET IN THE YANGTZE RIVER
DELTA REGION

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240016.001

Abstract

Abstract:

The 20^th Report presented an objective of carbon peaking and neutralization. Energy structural adjustment is a vital means to reach carbon neutralization. This paper, based on their symbiosis of carbon emission and economic growth, incorporates economic quality development into carbon neutralization objective. In terms of their 2017 inputs/outputs of three province and one city in Yangtze River delta, this paper establishes a regional macro- and microscopic SAM table and CGE model, and sets up a macroscopic economic closed system, which are used to study the impacts and variance of energy structural adjustment on Yangtze River delta’s economy. As energy structural transformation advances, its economic impacts vary. In Jiangsu province, when clean energy has been replaced at 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%, the economic impacts of multiple indicators gain a biggest loss at 5%, loss at 10% less than at 5% and 15%. Economic dependance on fossil fuels varies with location, less in Anhui and Shanghai, then Jiangsu, and Zhejiang receives the biggest impacts. Economic impacts waves as energy structural adjustment moves forward. When Jiangsu’s clean energy is replaced at 10%, economic impacts of most indicators from agricultural, manufacturing, servicing, GDP and governmental income are less than when clean energy is replaced at 5% and at 15%. Energy structural adjustment is a critical approach to carbon neutralization in Yangtze River delta and even nationwide.

Key words:

economic quality development, carbon neutralization, energy structural adjustment, economic impacts, CGE model

摘要： 党的二十大报告提出，积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。能源结构调整是实现碳中和目标的重要途径，从碳排放产生机制与经济增长的共生关系出发，将经济高质量发展纳入碳中和目标考虑范畴。基于长三角地区3省1市2017年投入产出表，构建区域宏、微观SAM表及能源结构调整模拟分析CGE（computable general equilibrium）模型，建立长三角地区宏观经济闭合系统，研究能源结构调整对长三角地区的经济影响及其差异性。研究发现：1）长三角各区域随着能源结构转型不断推进，其经济影响存在明显差异性，以江苏省为例，当清洁能源替代5%、10%、15%、20%时，江苏省能源结构调整的多数经济指标的经济影响以替代5%时的损失最多，替代10%时的损失小于替代5%、15%时的损失；2）长三角各区域经济发展对传统化石能源的依赖程度存在较大差异，安徽省、上海市经济发展受到能源结构调整的影响较低，江苏省次之，浙江省受到能源结构调整的影响最大；3）随着能源结构调整不断推进，长三角部分区域的经济影响存在阶段性浮动，以江苏省为例，当清洁能源替代10%时，多数经济指标，如农业、制造业、服务业部门的产出以及GDP、政府收入等的经济影响均小于清洁能源替代5%、15%时产生的影响。能源结构调整对长三角地区乃至全国各地实现碳中和目标至关重要，亟须关注。

关键词: 经济高质量发展, 碳中和, 能源结构调整, 经济影响, CGE模型

CLC Number:

F205
F062.1

WANG Lixiang, WANG Jianmin.

THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND VARIATIONS IN ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION [J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(1): 25-34.

王理想, 王建民. 碳中和目标下长三角地区能源结构调整的经济影响及其差异性[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 25-34.

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THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND VARIATIONS IN ENERGY STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION

碳中和目标下长三角地区能源结构调整的经济影响及其差异性

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