Abstract:

This paper, based on Jiangxi's statistical data, discusses the relationship between coal production & consumption and economic development, forecasts the future coal demand in Jiangxi province, and forecasts the future energy demand by means of unit production energy consumption method, energy coefficient method and energy consumption per capital, and calculates the other one-time energy consumption except the coal. A reasonable scientific forecast result is achieved via comparison and major coal-consumption unit method. This paper presents approaches to the sustainable development of coal resources in Jiangxi province.

Key words: coal, demand forecast, development strategy, Jiangxi

摘要：

根据江西省统计年鉴数据，文章首先论述了当前江西省煤炭资源生产和消耗与经济发展的关系；其次运用主要耗煤部门法预测了江西省未来煤炭需求量；再次通过单产能耗法、能源系数法和人均能耗法预测了江西省未来能源需求量，并计算得到除煤炭外其他一次能源消费量，同时比较分析间接预测法和主要耗煤部门法的预测结果，得出科学合理的预测值；最后提出未来江西省煤炭资源的可持续发展对策。

关键词: 煤炭, 需求预测, 发展战略, 江西