Abstract:

This paper, according to the national statistical data, by using the single index trend method, analyzes the changes in plowland quantity, crop production capacity and agricultural structure production, studies the comprehensive change trends on these three indexes in each province, gives a definition of gross plowland quantity. To have a scientific understanding on 1.8billion mu plowlands needs to cover the three indexes, and to link their dynamic changes, and to balance their internal relation, making it develop in a right way.

Key words: plowland quantity, crop production capacity, agricultural structure production, dynamic balance

摘要：

文章依据国家统计年鉴数据，通过单指标趋势法，分析了全国近10年耕地数量、粮食产能、农业结构产值变化情况，同时分析了全国各省（区、市）3个指标综合变化趋势。通过两个层次的分析，引出耕地总量的概念，提出科学理解1.2亿 hm²耕地红线的内涵：既要综合考虑耕地数量、粮食产能、农业结构产值3个指标，又要用发展的观点去理解他们之间的动态变化，统筹好它们之间的内在关系，使之向着良好的方向发展。

关键词: 耕地数量, 粮食产能, 农业结构产值, 动态平衡