Abstract:

This paper, based on a relationship between mineral resource demand per capita and economic growth per capita, named as “S” model, finds out the “S” rule between Nickel demand per capita and GDP per capita, combined with economic development level, population changes, scientific improvement, and infrastructure, classifies countries into developed nation group, industrialized nation group and developing nation group, and forecasts their future 20year’s nickel demand. Abundant as the Nickel resource is, it is far from its market, which will lead to an outstanding change in its demand structure.It is forecasted that the global nickel demand will rise in the future 20 years and climb up to twice as today, of which the industrialized nation group will be the principal.

Key words: mineral resources consumption, nickel consumption per capita, GDP per capita, forecast of consumption, global

摘要：

本文从人均矿产资源需求与人均经济增长的相关关系即“S”型模式入手，延伸出人均镍资源需求与人均GDP的“S”型规律。在全面分析经济发展水平、人口变化、科技进步、基础设施水平等诸多要素的基础上，将全球分为发达国家集团、工业化国家集团、欠发达国家集团3类国家集团，并对这3类国家集团未来20年的镍需求趋势进行分类探讨和预测。尽管全球镍资源丰富，但由于需求分布地区与资源地区严重分离，需求格局将发生显著变化。预测结果表明，未来20年，全球镍资源需求量持续增长，到2030年全球镍资源需求量相当于目前的2倍以上，其中工业化国家集团将成为需求主体。

关键词: 矿产资源消费, 人均镍消费, 人均GDP, 消费预测, 全球