Abstract:

Land price is key to land market management, and urban residential land price is key to urban land price management. Recently, urban land price ascended fast, meaning a land price risk which has caught governmental attention.However, there is no any risk warning mechanism in China.This paper, based on a case study on Tangshan city, applies residential land price risk evaluation model to define a rational range of Tangshan residential land price, classifies the warning range of urban residential land price in Tangshan city by using a related code, ascertains the preceding index of land price forecast by using timedifference relation analysis method, and forecasts the price trend by means of BP, and evaluates the Tangshan urban residential land price, attempting to providing a reference for government to make policies and for investors to get to know the risks.

Key words: residential land, land price, risk warning, Tangshan city

摘要：

土地市场管理的核心是土地价格管理，而居住用地价格管理又是城市土地价格管理的核心。近年来，我国城市土地价格增长较快，土地的价格风险越来越引起政府管理部门的重视。但是，到目前为止，我国土地市场还没有任何专门的价格风险预警预报机制。本文以唐山市居住用地价格为研究对象，通过居住用地价格风险评价模型对唐山市居住用地价格的合理性区间进行了界定，采用相应的标准划定了唐山市居住用地价格的警度区间，利用时差相关分析的方法确定唐山市居住用地价格预测的先行指标，借助BP神经网络模型对未来唐山市居住用地价格走势进行预测，并根据居住用地价格风险评价模型的界定对未来唐山市居住用地价格风险进行了评定。期望通过本研究，能够为政府经济部门提供决策依据，为广大投资者提供风险警示。

关键词: 居住用地, 土地价格, 风险预警, 唐山市