Abstract: This paper，based on an introduction to the development situation of tight oil globally，analyzes its future influence on international oil price. Its development can restrain oil price from rising，but not falling largely. The reasons include that its production and cost does not support the falling price. In an open market，development of tight oil will hold oil price，from external consumption market and internal production，to its profitable balanced price. OPEC’s surplus production capacity has a competition with tight oil production，which does not support a big jump of international oil price.

Key words: tight oil, crude oil price, geopolitics, surplus production capacity

摘要： 介绍全球致密油开发现状，并分析致密油开发对未来国际原油价格的影响。研究认为，致密油的发展能抑制油价上涨，但无法使油价大幅下跌。原因主要有：1）致密油的生产成本和产量不支持原油价格大幅降低；2）在完全开放的油气资源市场上，致密油的开发将从影响行业外部市场消费和行业内部企业生产2种路径支撑油价，并促使其趋向致密油生产的盈利平衡价格；3）OPEC剩余产能与致密油产量之间存在博弈，博弈结果同样不支持国际原油价格大幅下跌。

关键词: 致密油, 原油价格, 地缘政治, 剩余产能