Abstract: Macroeconomic risks are a direct and basic risk when developing overseas aluminum ore resources,and have a direct impact on targeting countries for Chinese companies.This paper identifies the macroeconomic risks,establishes risk evaluation index system and uses Delphi to give weight to each index.It also determines the evaluation objects and classifies their indexes.A mode is setup based on GRA and TOPSIS to assess and rank their macroeconomic risks of major aluminum countries,with results showing small risks in the UnitedStates,Australia,and Kazakhstan,but big in Venezuela,Guinea and Suriname.

Key words: aluminum ore, overseas development, macroeconomic risks, GRA, TOPSIS

摘要： 宏观经济风险是影响铝矿资源海外开发最为直接和基本的风险,宏观经济风险的大小直接影响我国铝矿企业海外开发铝矿资源目标国的选择。文章首先对宏观经济风险因素进行识别,构建宏观经济风险评价体系,采用专家调查法对指标进行赋权;其次,确定了评价对象,对评价指标进行分级;最后,建立基于灰色关联和TOPSIS法模型,对主要铝矿资源丰富国家的宏观经济风险进行评价,并得出它们宏观经济风险的大小排序。结果表明:美国、澳大利亚、哈萨克斯坦3个国家的宏观经济风险较小,委内瑞拉、几内亚、苏里南这3个国家的宏观经济风险较大。

关键词: 铝矿, 海外开发, 宏观经济风险, 灰色关联, TOPSIS法