SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECAST AND SUPPLY-SECURING MEASURES OF CLEAN ENERGY MINERAL PROCESSING PRODUCTS BASED ON A CASE STUDY ON LITHIUM, COBALT AND NICKEL

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20241204.001

Abstract

Abstract: Forecasting supply/demand of clean energy critical mineral processing products and exploring the effective ways to raise supply-securing level of critical mineral processing products are of significance to guarantee and stabilize industrial chain and supply chain of critical minerals in China. This paper, aiming at the clean energy critical mineral processing products of lithium, cobalt and nickel, applies grey forecasting model, ARIMA model and a combined model based on entropy to forecast China's market supply/demand trend of clean energy critical mineral processing products from 2023 to 2030. Entropy-based combined model works excellently in market supply/demand of lithium, cobalt and nickel with dramatically improved forecasting precision compared to single model. In consideration of recycling resource contribution, it is forecasted that the demand for lithium and cobalt processing products will reach 153.74×10.4 t and 25.34×10.4 t in 2030, and the supply will be 183.56×10.4 t and 23.36×10.4 t, basically reaching a supply/demand balance, but with potential disturbance from technical innovation. As for nickel processing products, without considering the recycling resource, there will be a conflicted demand/supply, suggesting China should take immediate actions to secure domestic nickel processing products supply to guarantee sustainable development. Suggestions are presented for the three critical minerals. For lithium, China should prioritize research and application of deep brine lithium extraction technologies, promote the “oil-lithium co-exploration” model, and intensify technical innovation to reduce reliance on imports and mitigate market volatility risks. As for cobalt resource, recycling economy is the key way by intensifying cobalt recycling research and application and by increasing overall use efficiency to relieve mining pressure. As for nickel resource, it suggests China cooperate with “the Belt and Road” countries in overseas investment and production by diversifying importing sources, and boost domestic nickel exploration and development to ensure stability and security of nickel supply chain

Key words: clean energy, critical mineral processing products, supply/demand forecast, ARIMA-GM-entropy combined model

摘要： 科学预测清洁能源关键矿产加工产品供需量，探索提升中国关键矿产加工产品供给保障水平的有效路径对于保障关键矿产产业链与供应链安全、稳定具有重要的现实意义。聚焦于锂、钴、镍三大清洁能源关键矿产加工产品，采用灰色预测模型、ARIMA模型及各单项模型基于熵值法的组合模型，对2023—2030年我国清洁能源关键矿产资源加工产品的市场供求趋势进行了系统的分析。研究表明：1）基于熵值法的组合预测模型在预测锂、钴、镍矿加工产品市场需求量与供给量时表现出色，相较于单项预测方法，其预测精度显著提升，误差大幅减少；2）在考虑二次资源贡献后，预测2030年锂、钴矿加工产品市场需求将分别达到153.74万t、25.34万t，而供给量分别为183.56万t、23.36万t，表明市场供需趋于平衡，但需警惕技术革新对市场的潜在扰动；3）对于镍矿加工产品，若不计入再生资源，其市场供需矛盾突出，预示需紧急加强国内镍矿加工产品的供应能力以保障行业长期稳定发展。基于此，提出如下保供策略：针对锂资源，应重视深层卤水提锂技术的研发与应用，推广“油锂同探”模式，强化技术创新，以减少对进口的依赖并应对市场波动风险；对于钴矿资源，倡导循环经济，加大再生钴回收技术的研发与应用力度，提高资源综合利用率，缓解原生钴矿开采压力；就镍资源而言，建议加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的合作，拓展海外投资与产能合作，实现进口来源多元化，同时加强国内镍矿资源的勘查与开发，确保镍资源供应链的稳定性与安全性。

关键词: 清洁能源, 关键矿产加工产品, 供需预测, ARIMA-GM-熵值法组合模型

CLC Number:

F205

YI Xinghua, WANG Xiaoxiao, CHENG Jinhua, HU Songqin. SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECAST AND SUPPLY-SECURING MEASURES OF CLEAN ENERGY MINERAL PROCESSING PRODUCTS BASED ON A CASE STUDY ON LITHIUM, COBALT AND NICKEL[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(1): 63-76.

易杏花, 王笑笑, 成金华, 胡松琴. 清洁能源关键矿产加工产品供需预测及保供措施研究——以锂、钴、镍为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(1): 63-76.

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