EVOLUTIONARY GAMBLING STUDY ON LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR INDUSTRIAL GAS PRODUCERS

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20241014.001

Abstract

Abstract: Industrial gas as an important industrial material with a rising demand consumes a large quantity of energy during its production, which requires a low-carbon transformation of industrial gas producers for green development. Due to the limitation of transformation costs, governmental allowance is adopted. With distributed photovoltaic power generation as the transforming direction, considering the transforming conditions such as environmental benefits, utility cost and geographic location, this paper uses evolutionary gambling theory to establish a gambling model between governments and firms, which is employed to analyze their rule in making decisions and to explore the evolutionary path to low carbon transformation under governmental allowance, and applies Python to analyze the impacts of firms' comprehensive conditions on their low carbon transformation with purpose of offering references for energy consumption low carbon transformation and industrial green development. There are six scenarios of evolutionary equilibrium in the gambling between governments and firms, which can be divided into three stages. Evolutionary state depends on governmental allowance, firms' transforming costs and comprehensive conditions. Governmental allowance determines if firms have capabilities to transform, and environmental benefits determine the final evolutionary path. Firms are facing pressures of transformation costs and target scale planning; the former is negative to its comprehensive conditions while the latter is positive. Whether firms with poor comprehensive conditions can realize their transformation lies in reducing transforming costs pressure. Governmental allowance shall be used to reduce firms' transforming costs such as equipment cost, transportation costs, maintenance costs, and plant construction costs. For firms with better comprehensive conditions, success of their transformation depends on reducing their target scale planning pressure, and governmental allowance should be focused on planning and optimization of renewable energy application sites and plants remodeling to maximize their target scales

Key words: industrial green development, industrial gas, low carbon transformation, evolutionary gambling

摘要： 工业气体是现代工业的重要基础原料，其需求量逐年递增并且在生产过程中能源消耗巨大，要实现工业领域绿色发展，工业气体制造企业低碳转型迫在眉睫。鉴于工业气体制造企业在能源消费低碳转型过程中受到转型成本的限制，引入政府补贴机制，以分布式光伏发电作为企业能源消费低碳转型方向，通过考虑企业转型的综合条件（环境效益、用电成本以及地理环境），运用演化博弈理论构建政府与企业之间的博弈模型，分析政府与企业之间的决策行为规律，探索政府补贴下企业低碳转型的演化路径，最后运用Python仿真分析技术研究企业综合条件对企业低碳转型的影响，以期为能源消费低碳转型、工业领域绿色发展政策提供了一定的理论参考与指导。研究表明：1）政府与企业之间的博弈存在6种不同的演化均衡情况，具体可以分为3个阶段，演化稳定状态取决于政府补贴、企业的转型成本以及企业的综合条件。政府补贴决定企业是否具备自主转型的能力，而企业在转型过程中能否带来足够的环境效益决定了最终的演化路径。2）企业在转型过程中面临着转型成本压力与目标规模规划压力，企业的目标规模规划压力与企业综合条件呈正相关关系，转型成本压力与企业综合条件呈负相关关系。3）综合条件较差的企业实现自主转型的关键在于降低转型成本压力。政府补贴应主要用于降低企业的转型成本如设备成本、运输成本、维修成本、厂房建设成本。4) 针对综合条件较好的企业，实现其自主转型的关键在于帮助企业降低其目标规模规划压力，政府补贴应重点聚焦于可再生能源应用场所规划与优化提升、厂房改造成本等方面，尽可能扩大其目标规模。

关键词: 工业绿色发展, 工业气体, 低碳转型, 演化博弈

CLC Number:

F205
F426

LU Qing, FANG Huaxin, HOU Jianchao. EVOLUTIONARY GAMBLING STUDY ON LOW-CARBON TRANSFORMATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR INDUSTRIAL GAS PRODUCERS[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(1): 92-106.

陆青, 方华鑫, 侯建朝. 面向工业气体制造企业能源消费低碳转型的演化博弈研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(1): 92-106.

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