Abstract: This paper, based on manufactured goods trading data between China and 61 countries along “the Belt and Road”, establishes an input/output table of value-objects mixed water resources to measure virtual water traded volumes between China and the above countries from 2007 to 2020, and analyzes the spatio-temporal features of their virtual water flow, reveals the flowing direction, sizes and structures. Virtual water trading structures of China's manufactured goods can be optimized with manufacturing's water use efficiency increased and then water resource's input/output efficiency increased as well, mitigating China's water shortage and guaranteeing China's water resource security. Most manufacturing's direct water use coefficient and complete water use coefficient show a declining trend during the study period, especially in paper, printing, physical exercise manufacturing and metallic manufacturing, indicating an outstanding water use efficient increment and decrease in virtual water content in unit product. The overall virtual water flow scale of manufactured goods between China and “the Belt and Road” countries from 2007 to 2020 shows a falling trend, from 34.697 billion cubic meters to 17.867 billion cubic meters. From the perspective of trading balance, China's manufacturing's virtual water export is more than imported avoided water resource except the year of 2012. China's virtual water net export has accelerated after “the Belt and Road” initiative in 2013. Virtual water of China's manufactured goods mainly flows to Southeast Asia, West Asia & Middle East, East Asia, and Middle-East Europe, most to Southeast Asia at 4.355 billion cubic meters per year. China's large quantity of virtual water flow out comes from export trades in equipment, chemicals, metallic, textile, and leather manufacturing, with water saved from import trades in equipment, chemicals, petroleum, coking coal and nuclear fuels manufacturing.

Key words: virtual water trade, input/output, “the Belt and Road”, manufactured goods trade

摘要： 基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的制成品贸易数据，选取加入“一带一路”倡议的61个国家作为研究对象，通过构建价值-实物混合型水资源投入产出表对2007—2020年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间制成品虚拟水贸易量进行测算，并分析虚拟水流动的时空特征，揭示虚拟水的流动方向、规模和结构。基于研究结论对中国制成品虚拟水贸易结构进行优化，同时提高制造业用水效率从而提高水资源的投入产出效率，为切实缓解水资源短缺和保障我国水资源安全提供依据。研究表明：1）总体来看，在研究期内大部分制造业部门的直接用水系数和完全用水系数均呈下降趋势，跌幅较大的部门为造纸印刷和文教体育用品制造业和金属制品制造业，用水效率显著提升，单位产品里的虚拟水含量下降。2）2007—2020年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的制成品虚拟水流动的总体规模呈下降趋势，从346.97亿m³下降到178.67亿m³。3）从虚拟水贸易平衡的角度来看，除了2012年，其余年份中国制造业虚拟水出口量大于进口所避免的水资源使用量，中国制成品虚拟水整体呈净流出的态势，且在2013年“一带一路”倡议提出后，中国的虚拟水净出口量加速增长。4）中国制成品虚拟水主要流向东南亚、西亚和中东、东亚、中东欧这4个区域，其中东南亚是中国输送制造业虚拟水量最多的区域，年均为43.55亿m³。5）中国主要在各类设备制造业、化学产品制造业、金属制品制造业、纺织业与皮革制造业的出口贸易中流出大量虚拟水；主要从各类设备制造业，化学产品制造业和石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工业的进口贸易中节约水资源使用。

关键词: 虚拟水贸易, 投入产出, “一带一路”, 制成品贸易