Abstract:

The middle- to long-term prognostication of global energy demands is a key point to study the international energy strategy, so the results are directly related to energy planning and policies. This paper, based on comparison between IEA’s and EIA’s prognostication, presents a big warp between the prognostication and the actual consumption. A further study indicates that there exist unreasonable basic units and deficient methods. This paper, aiming at the problems, presents a new prognostication model system of energy demands which uses the basic prognostication unit that is based on economic-social development in countries, and applies the per capital energy demand and end-use energy demand together.

Key words:

prognostication of global energy demand; model system; basic prognostication unit; prognostication method

摘要：

全球能源需求中长期预测是国际能源战略研究的基础，预测结果的准确性直接关系到能源规划和能源政策的成败。本文通过系统对比分析国际能源署（简称IEA）和美国能源部（简称EIA）以往全球能源需求预测结果，指出两机构对全球各主要区域能源需求的预测与实际普遍存在较大偏差。对IEA和EIA所使用的预测模型体系的进一步分析表明，基本预测单元设定的不合理和基本预测方法存在的明显缺陷，是导致IEA和EIA区域能源需求预测结果出现较大偏差的主要原因。为从根本上解决上述问题，本文提出依据各国经济和社会发展状况划分基本预测单元，采用以人均能源需求预测与终端能源需求预测相结合的预测方法，构建全新的能源需求预测模型体系。

关键词: 全球能源需求预测；模型体系；基本预测单元；预测方法