Abstract:

Playing an important role in global petroleum market, OPEC has a great influence on petroleum price by its strategic policies, which are affected by seven factors, including petroleum demand, energy substitute price, oil production in non-OPEC, energy policies and capability to price fluctuation in oil consumption nations, OPEC'member, international politics, US dollar exchange rate and inflation. This paper, based on an analysis on these seven factors, thinks OPEC can not be challenged by non-OPEC. Due to a limit to increase oil production with a high price, and no milestone in energy substitute technology, the developing countries such China and India will have to be facing OPEC's high oil price policies. The oil price after world's economic recovery will still be high.

Key words: OPEC, strategic policies, petroleum market

摘要：

欧佩克在石油市场中的地位举足轻重，其战略政策对石油价格影响深远，本文分析了石油需求、替代能源价格水平、非欧佩克国家石油生产能力、石油消费国能源政策与油价波动承受能力、欧佩克成员国情况、国际政治因素、美元汇率和通货膨胀7个因素对欧佩克战略政策的影响，认为当前非欧佩克不具备挑战欧佩克的竞争力，面对高油价增产乏力，加之替代能源技术没有重大突破，中印等发展中国家石油需求的增加等因素均有利于欧佩克执行高油价政策，世界经济复苏后油价将处于高位。

关键词: 欧佩克, 战略政策, 石油市场