Abstract:

This paper analyzes the world gold reserves and production history, finds that the gold production has fluctuation with quite similar cycle, at a decreasing production process currently. It is forecasted that the peak and trough, in the future, will shrink in time interval. The global gold production has decreased in industrial concentration. The traditional gold producing nations have delayed their descending production, but ascending in some developing nations. The gold cash cost is going up by year following by the rising gold price, which will largely stimulate the gold producing capacity. The gold which had displayed anti-inflation from this economic crisis will be rising. The global gold production is estimated to be climbing soon after its decreasing trend is mitigated in the coming years.

Key words: gold production history, industrial analysis, production forecast

摘要：

本文通过系统分析世界黄金储量和100多年来的产量历史以及全球黄金产业格局的演变趋势，发现世界黄金产量形成了明显的周期近乎一致的波峰和波谷现象。目前正处于新一轮周期的产量下降过程，预测今后全球黄金产量的高峰和低谷之间的间隔将有所缩短。35年来全球黄金产业集中度明显下降，传统四大产金国产量下降趋势减缓，而一些发展中国家作为新兴产金国黄金产量在稳步上升。近10年来全球黄金现金成本逐年上升，但目前黄金价格的强劲上升，将释放近几年被压缩的产能。随着本轮经济危机中黄金因发挥避险功能而带来的价格上涨，预计未来几年内全球黄金产量的下降趋势将减缓并很快进入新一轮上升周期。

关键词: 黄金生产历史, 产业分析, 产量预测