Abstract:

Since the beginning of 21st century, as China's industrialization and urbanization goes quickly, steel production climbs up largely based on a strong demand of iron ores. In particular, from 2004 to 2009, a rapid growth of imported iron ores resulted in a continuous rise in price. According to the shortterm model of mineral resources constraints on economic growth, constraints of iron ore resources to China's economic growth is measured via 2001—2009 iron ore export & import data and GDP data, demonstrating a continuedrising influence to the absolute value of economic growth, from 0.42% in 2004 to 2.92% in 2009. Iron ore resource is a big constraint to China's economic growth especially to industrial growth in a short term, but still remains a strong influence for a long time in the future.

Key words: iron ore resource, constraint, economic growth

摘要：

21世纪以来，随着我国工业化、城镇化步伐加快，钢铁产量大幅度增长，铁矿石需求强劲。特别是2004—2009年，我国铁矿石进口快速增长，价格不断攀升。根据矿产资源约束经济增长的短期模型，通过2001—2009年我国铁矿石进出口和GDP数据，测算铁矿石资源对我国经济增长的约束，表明同期铁矿石影响我国经济增长的绝对值也不断增长。其中2004年影响GDP 0.42%，2009年达到2.92%。铁矿石资源对我国当前经济增长特别是工业增长短期约束是显著的，今后一段时期内仍将维持较强的态势。

关键词:  , 铁矿石, 资源约束, 经济增长