Abstract:

Potash is a major source of potash fertilizer in agriculture. China as a big agricultural nation has a 20% of potash fertilizer demand worldwide, but very poor in China’s potash resource, and 70% depending on import. A stable and rational import price is a vital point in potash fertilizer industry. This paper adopts game theory and benefit-cost analysis to discuss how to reach a purchase contract with rational prices for China’s potash importers, aims to keep a stable development of potash fertilizer industry and to guarantee a sustainable increment of agricultural development and national economy.

Key words: potash fertilizer, import prices, game theory

摘要：

钾盐是农业生产所需钾肥的主要来源。中国作为一个农业大国，钾肥需求量占世界钾肥总消费量的20%，但本国钾盐资源短缺，70%依赖进口。钾盐进口价格稳定、合理是中国钾肥行业健康发展的关键。作者采用非零和博弈模型与纳什均衡和成本-效益分析法（Benefit-cost Analysis）两种方式，拟用博弈论模型探讨我国的钾盐进口商采用何种方式更有利于合理价格的达成，以期维护钾肥行业的稳定发展，保障我国农业安全和国民经济稳定持续增长。

关键词: 钾盐, 进口价格, 博弈论