Abstract:

The Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains as the most developed region of Xinjiang bears important mission to change the economic development mode and structural adjustment. Its development plan has been risen to a national strategy. By means of three-axis graph method, this paper studies the industrial restructuring and the regional differences in the northern slope economic belt of Xinjiang Tianshan Mountains, conducts a comparative analysis through SSM model to analyze its industrial structure, and concludes that the industrial structure evolutes to the right-handed mode. Urumqi is in the advanced stage of industrial structure's development, but the tertiary industrial competitiveness tends to decline. Wusu and Changji have a good base in their first industry with strong competitiveness and increasing potential in their second industry, such as Kuitun and Fukang. This paper proposes that the industrial structure adjustment shall follow its rules and be combined with the urban resources loading capacity and industrial competiveness advantages.

Key words: industrial restructuring, three-axis graph method, shift-share method

摘要：

天山北坡经济带是新疆经济最发达的地区，承载着转新疆变经济发展方式和调整新疆产业结构的重要使命，目前其发展规划已上升为国家战略。此文在应用“三轴图”法研究新疆天山北坡经济带产业结构调整的变化轨迹及其区域差异的基础上，利用SSM模型比较分析天山北坡经济带的产业结构，认为天山北坡经济带产业结构按右旋模式演变；乌鲁木齐处于产业结构发展的高级阶段，但第三产业竞争力趋于下降；乌苏、昌吉的第一产业基础较好且竞争力强；其第二产业均为具有部门优势的增长性产业，以奎屯和阜康为突出。依据分析结果结合实际情况提出天山北坡经济带的产业结构调整应遵循自身产业结构演变规律，并结合经济带中各城市的资源承载力水平和产业竞争优势。

关键词: 产业结构调整, &ldquo, 三轴图&rdquo, 法, SSM（偏离&mdash, 份额分析）模型