Abstract:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a mature, widelyused and most acceptable way in petroleum companys evaluation, but with defects when evaluating with high uncertainty. The real option, through transplanting the financial option pricing to real investing pricing, covers the values of future investment decision. This paper, based on a comparison of the above, uses the both to evaluate Nexen, and finds that cashflow fast and direct, but if under a suppose of a precise future cashflow and discounted ratio in expected life and unchanged environment. The real option, however, makes up this but with its dim model weakening its effect.

Key words: companys evaluation, free cashflow, discounted cashflow model, real option model, binomial option pricing model

摘要：

在石油公司估值中，现金流折现法是发展最成熟、应用最广泛、接受度最高的估值方法，但对不确定性较高的投资估值时存在缺陷。实物期权法将金融期权定价的概念移植到实物投资定价领域，考虑了未来投资决策的价值。对两种方法进行模型理论对比，并采用两种方法对Nexen公司估值进行实证分析，检验和对比结果证实:现金流应用中便捷、直观，但假设估值者能准确预期企业未来净现金流量及风险调整贴现率和假设寿命期内，投资的内外部环境不发生预期外的变化导致其结果存在很大局限性；实物期权法考虑了内外部因素变化可能对投资产生的影响，实现了学习型投资，是对前者的良好补充，但模型抽象、晦涩对应用效果有一定影响。

关键词: 公司估值；自由现金流, 现金流折现模型, 实物期权模型, 二叉树期权定价模型