Abstract: The northwestern China is facing an imbalanced resources, environment and economy, which needs to verify if the “resource curse” effects and transmission mechanism exist among resources occurrence, resources industrial dependence and economic development to reach a sustainable development in northwestern “resources-economy-environment”. This paper selects 2006 to 2020 panel data of 30 prefectures in China's northwestern 5 provinces to explore the existence of resources curse, presents a conditional “resources curse” hypothesis that resource dependence has an upside-down U-shaped relation with economy. On the basis of clarification of resource abundance and resource dependence, resource dependence is used as explainable variable to study “resources curse”, and GMM is employed to conduct regression analysis on the benchmark model and transmission mechanism. “Resources curse” exists in northwestern China with its resource dependence having an upside-down U-shaped relationship with economy. Material capital investment plays a negative role on economy, more at its curve inflection point, suggesting it do little on avoiding “resources curse”, and may led to its happening to some degree. Employment growth rate, technical inputs, human capital inputs and infrastructures have little effect on economy and curve inflection point, but governmental intervention plays an outstandingly negative role in economy. Estimation of transmission mechanism doesn't show that “resources curse” in the northwestern China has a strong squeezing effect on manufacturing and foreign trading, possibly due to its local supportive policies and developing stages, but the negative impacts of resources dependence on manufacturing and openness cannot be ignored. This paper presents suggestions on boosting private capital construction to improve the impacts of its unfavorable location, on increasing investment along with attracting talents, and on upgrading industrial structure and industrial internal development.

Key words: resources curse, transmission mechanism, upsidedown U shaped relation, system GMM estimate

摘要： 西北地区陷入资源、环境与经济发展不均衡的困境,亟需验证资源的丰裕度、资源产业依赖度与其经济发展水平之间是否存在“资源诅咒”效应及其传导机制,以此实现西北地区“资源-经济-环境”可持续发展。选取中国西北地区五省30个地级市2006—2020年面板数据作为样本,以探寻“资源诅咒”存在性为基础,通过提出资源依赖度和经济发展水平之间存在倒“U”型曲线关系的有条件“资源诅咒”假说,研究资源和经济发展之间的关系。同时,对资源丰裕度和资源依赖度进行区分,选取资源依赖度作为解释变量展开对“资源诅咒”命题的研究,利用系统GMM估计方法对基准模型和传导机制模型进行回归分析。研究显示,我国西北地区存在“资源诅咒”现象,其资源依赖度和经济发展水平之间存在倒“U”型曲线关系。进一步研究发现:物质资本投入水平对经济发展水平具有一定程度的负向作用,并且对曲线拐点的负向作用明显,即对规避“资源诅咒”无明显的作用且在一定程度上可能会导致“资源诅咒”的发生；就业增长率、科学技术投入水平、人力资本投入水平和基础设施建设对经济发展和曲线拐点的影响尚不显著,而政府干预对经济发展水平具有显著的负向影响。传导机制估计结果显示,西北地区“资源诅咒”现象暂未表现出对制造业和对外贸易显著的挤出效应,可能与地区政策支持和发展阶段有关,但资源依赖度对制造业发展水平和对外开放程度的负向影响不容忽视。基于上述研究结论,提出如下对策建议:1）加强西北地区社会先行资本建设,改善西北地区区位不利带来的影响；2）进行大量资金投入的同时注重对人才的吸引,避免人才流失；3）促进社会产业结构和产业内部发展机制的转型升级。

关键词: 资源诅咒, 传导机制, 倒“U”型关系, 系统GMM估计