Abstract:

The plowland protection and its sustainable development are underlined in the newround land utilization planning in China. The paramount step for land utilization planning is to determine the plowland index, which requires a prediction of preserved plowland quantity. This paper combines the land utilization general planning, studies the preserved plowland quantity in Liaoyang city by means of regression method, longterm tendency method and fuzzy system method, which provides a reference to establish the land utilization general planning in Liaoyang city.

Key words:

preserved plowland quantity; prediction means; land utilization general planning

摘要：

我国新一轮的土地利用总体规划中突出强调了耕地的保护和可持续发展问题，而作为土地利用总体规划调整指标中最重要的耕地指标如何确定,首要的前提是作好耕地保有量的预测工作。文章结合辽阳市土地利用总体规划的要求，运用了回归分析法、长期趋势法、灰色系统法对辽阳市耕地保有量进行了科学的预测分析研究。通过合理的预测分析，对辽阳市土地利用总体规划的制定有一定的借鉴作用。

关键词: 耕地保有量；预测方法；土地利用总体规划