资源与产业 ›› 2021, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 11-20.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20211014.002

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中国经济增长与能源消费的多部门脱钩预测

孙 涵 1,2,张红艳 1,付晓灵 1   

  1. (1. 中国地质大学(武汉) 经济管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074;2. 自然资源部战略研究重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430074)
  • 收稿日期:2020-08-30 修回日期:2020-09-21 出版日期:2020-10-20 发布日期:2021-11-20
  • 作者简介:孙涵,博士、副教授,主要从事资源环境管理研究。E-mail: sunhan2004@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L17AJY001)。

FORECAST OF MULTIPLE-SECTORAL DECOUPLING OF CHINA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ENERGY CONSUMPTION

SUN Han 1, 2,  ZHANG Hongyan 1, FU Xiaoling 1   

  1. (1.  School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; 
    2. Key Laboratory of Strategic Research, the Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan 430074, China)
  • Received:2020-08-30 Revised:2020-09-21 Online:2020-10-20 Published:2021-11-20

摘要: 随着经济发展,环境污染和能源短缺问题日益严重,中国各部门经济增长与能源消费的脱钩,关系到中国能源安全与气候环境的压力能否得到缓解。利用Tapio脱钩模型,结合LEAP系统,及1999—2017年8部门的产值及能源消耗数据,对基准和展望情景下中国各部门产值与能源消费之间的脱钩情况进行预测分析。结果显示,2020—2030年,中国第一产业脱钩情况表现较好,实现强脱钩(ΔG>0,ΔE<0,δ<0)的可能性较大;第二产业中各部门均有望实现强脱钩,但在参考情景下,采掘业及电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业出现了衰退脱钩情况(ΔG<0,ΔE<0,0.8≤δ≤1.2),制造业及建筑业则出现脱钩状态在强脱钩和弱脱钩(ΔG>0,ΔE>0,0≤δ<0.8)之间波动的情况,在展望情景下,情况则均有好转;第三产业中除交通运输、仓储和邮政业在参考及展望情景下均呈现扩张连接(ΔG>0,ΔE>0,0.8≤δ≤1.2)状态外,其余各部门在展望情景下均出现了弱脱钩状态。因此,本研究认为政策制定者应重点关注第三产业各部门的脱钩,尤其是交通运输、仓储和邮政业,该部门在升级能源使用结构和技术创新方面仍有较大空间。

关键词: 多部门, Tapio脱钩模型, LEAP系统, 情景分析, 经济增长, 能源消费

Abstract: Environmental pollution and energic shortage are worsening as economy grows. Decoupling of China's multiple-sectoral economic growth with energic consumption is key to relieving the pressures on China's energy security and climate and environment. This paper uses Tapio decoupling model and LEAP system to forecast the decoupling of China's sectoral production with energic consumption under benchmark and outlook scenarios on the basis of production and energic consumption information of 8 sectors in 1999 to 2017. Results show that the decoupling is well in the first industry, probably to reach a strong decoupling (ΔG>0, ΔE<0, δ<0), likely to reach a strong decoupling in the second industry, but declining (ΔG<0, ΔE<0, 0.8≤δ≤1.2) in mining, electricity, gas and supply industries under the reference background, fluctuating between strong and weak decoupling in manufacturing and building sectors, which is estimated to be improving. The third industry displays a weak decoupling under the outlook except the storage and posting industries with an expanding connection (ΔG>0, ΔE>0, 0.8≤δ≤1.2) under the reference and outlook. This paper presents suggestion for policy makers to focus on the third industry, especially on transportation, storage and positing industries of large potential in improving energic use structure and technical innovation.

Key words: multiple-sectoral, Tapio decoupling model, LEAP system, scenario analysis, economic growth, energic consumption

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