Table of Content

20 February 2021, Volume 23 Issue 1

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RELATION OF WATER QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION UNDER GREY WATER FOOTPRINT MEASUREMENT

ZHU Zhiming, GUO Lingli

2021, 23(1):  1-9.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20201211.004

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Phosphorus pollution factor is added to the traditional measurement to measure the grey water footprint of each domain in the provinces(cities) of Yangtze river delta region from 2005 to 2017, and regression model is used to verify the relation between grey water footprint and GDP in the provinces (cities), in an attempt to explore a coordinated developing model of economy and water resources. Unlike the traditional measurement in which gross nitrogen and COD are the major pollution factors in agricultural grey water footprint, phosphorus has become the chief pollution source of agricultural grey water footprint in Yangtze river delta region. Grey water footprint shows a decreasing-increasing-decreasing trend in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces from 2005 to 2017, continuously decreasing in Shanghai city. Water quality is generally improving in Yangtze river delta region along with an increased water resources use efficiency. There is a descending correlation curve of water quality and economic development in Shanghai, an upside-down N-shaped curve in Jiangsu and Anhui, and an upside-down U-shaped curve in Zhejiang. This study provides references for governments to adopt differentiated water pollution control measures through analysis of the relation of grey water footprint and economic development in Yangtze river delta region.

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND SPATIAL EFFECTS OF WATER RESOURCES WELFARE PERFORMANCE IN YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE

WANG Baoqian, YE Wenqian

2021, 23(1):  10-19.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210104.005

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This paper based on panel data of 11 provinces (cities) in Yangtze river economic zone from 2008 to 2017, uses non-diametric Super-SBM model to estimate the water resources welfare performance of provinces (cities) in Yangtze river economic zone, applies non-parametric Kernel core density and standard deviation ellipse model to study the dynamic evolution of water resources welfare performance, and employs overall Morans index and spatial panel model to analyze the spatial effects, in an attempt to provide references in promoting ecological environment restoration and ecological civilization construction in Yangtze river economic zone. Water resources welfare performance of Yangtze river economic zone shows a slowly rising trend from 2008 to 2017, high in eastern region, followed by western, low in central. Its performance center moves to the northeast. Also its welfare performance has a spatial concentrating and overflowing effects. Technical advance promotes water resources welfare performance, but environmental regulations and urbanization level play a negative role. Industrial structure and foreign investment level have little impact. This paper presents suggestions on coordinating regional developing mode, conducting technical innovation, establishing regional cooperation and exchange, expanding positive spatial overflowing and issuing localized policies.

ESTIMATION METHOD CONSTRUCTION AND APPLICATION OF OCEANIC ECOSYSTEM SERVICES BASED ON ENERGY VALUES

LIU Gengyuan, LIU Chang, YANG Qing

2021, 23(1):  20-34.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210102.001

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This paper uses energy values to establish an estimation method of oceanic ecosystem service based on non-monetary ecosystem service values evaluation, which is used to estimate China's oceanic ecosystem service values in 2012 with objectives of providing reference for governmental managements in planning oceanic resources. According to oceanic ecosystem service values in 2012, China's 13 coastal provinces (cities) are ranked as follows: Guangdong, Shandong, Taiwan, Fujian, Hainan (Sansha city excluded), Liaoning, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangxi, Hebei, Tianjin and Sansha city (only coral reef and sea grass bed considered). Seven categories of oceanic ecosystems whose unit service values are in a decreasing order are mangrove, salt swamp, tidal flat, estuary, sea grass bed, warm water coral reef and 12 sea miles water, suggesting a bigger unit ecosystem service value in shore wetland, compared to coastal water. So protection of existing shore wetland ecosystem or expansion of its area helps increase oceanic ecosystem service values. The major ecosystem services include increasing biological diversity, fixing carbon and releasing oxygen, and natural power generation with their contribution over 70%.

CARBON EMISSION EFFECT, FACTORS AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN UNDERDEVELOPED REGIONS: A CASE STUDY ON NORTHERN JIANGSU PROVINCE

JIAN Xiaobin, CHEN Weibo, ZHAO Jie

2021, 23(1):  35-45.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210105.001

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This paper uses carbon emission decomposition model to measure the carbon emission of industrial development in northern Jiangsu, and applies expanded STIRPAT model to analyze its factors, and employs carbon emission potential index model to study the reduction potential of industrial carbon emission. Industrial carbon emission intensity has gradually declined in northern Jiangsu, lower than the average in China, mostly contributed from power, mining, metallurgy, petroleum refinery and paper industries in Xuzhou and Huai'an. The factors impacting industrial carbon emission in northern Jiangsu include energy consumption intensity, industrial economy scale and industry structure, followed by the living standard of residents and urbanization level. The key industries with great potential in industrial carbon emission reduction are power, mining, petroleum refinery, chemicals and medicine, metallurgy, equipment manufacture, paper industries in Xuzhou, Huai'an and Lianyungang. This paper presents suggestions on establishing carbon emission objectives and responsibilities for key industries, enhancing carbon emission controls, exerting carbon emission reduction potential, and promoting industrial energy saving and advancing in northern Jiangsu province.

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE CHARACTERISTICS AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PREDICTION IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

LONG Qichao, HE Min, CHEN Junhui, et al

2021, 23(1):  46-54.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210105.002

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As end treatment of industrial pollution sources advances, their end emission space continuously shrinks. Industrial structural adjustment is an effective means in mitigating regional environmental pressure. This paper, based on status of three industrial structures in Sichuan, uses Theil index and industrial structure advancing index to estimate industrial structure rationalization extent and advancing level from perspectives of Sichuan province, five economic zones and cities, statistically analyzes the changing trend of leading industries, and applies component data model and ARIMA model to predict their percentages of three industries, aiming at offering references for Sichuan to make industrial structure optimization policies. It concludes that Sichuan's industrial structure has been consistently upgrading and improving, with large gaps within or among regions. Traditional energy, resources-intensive industries and primary processing industry of agricultural products still hold a major fraction, except Chengdu plain economic zone with developed electric information. This paper presents suggestions on enhancing co-integrated development within and among regions, boosting internal structural optimization of the secondary industry for Sichuan's industrial structural upgrading.

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND MECHANISM OFINDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY IN YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE

LI Linjuan, WANG Zhongzhi, MENG Hao, et al

2021, 23(1):  55-62.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210104.001

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This paper, based on China's land supply data from 2010 to 2018 gained from China Land Market website via Python program, uses spatial distribution center, regional Gini coefficient, cold-hot spot and panel data model to discuss the temporal-spatial evolution and mechanism industrial land supply in Yangtze river economic zone during bi-transitional periods of market and development and supply side reform, aiming at providing theoretical supports for optimizing industrial planning and promoting supply side reform. Supply of industrial land in Yangtze river economic zone shows a fluctuated decreasing trend with rising, falling and slowly increasing stages. Spatial distribution of industrial land citywide generally tends to be balanced with a shrinking regional land supply difference. Industrial land is the largest in the middle stream of Yangtze river with its distributing center migrating to Yangtze river delta. Land supply is influenced by industrial land price and economic level; it is promoted by increment of fixed asset investment, local financial income and gross industrial production.

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON SURFACE EXTRACTION OF DUIJIANGNAN COAL FIELD CBM IN GUIZHOU PROVINCE

LIU Nana, RU Ting

2021, 23(1):  63-68.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210104.003

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Duijiangnan coal field in Guizhou province holds lots of coal beds with high content of methane, meaning abundant CBM resources, but high outbreak risk of CBM. This paper uses the volume method to estimate the CBM resources of minable coal beds, based on the prior extraction test. Extraction project is designed, and feasibility study is conducted by means of depreciated cash flow. Duijiangnan coal field is a medium sized CBM field with a resources potential of 31.05×10^8 m^3 and resources concentration of 1.56×10^8 m^3/km^2. Single well gains high production, up to 1 803.94 m^3/d, and comprehensive extraction rate is 31.26%-32.54% with a mining life of ten years. CMB content of the major coal bed M78 may decrease to 8.0-13.5 m^3/t, with economic extraction. This development project has good economic indexes with intern return rate of 8.22% after tax, a bit over the basic return rate. Net present value after tax is 914.2 thousand Yuan, with a payback period of 6.98 years, less than the basic payback period. It is proved to be a feasible project.

ALERTING AND APPLICATION OF RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF KEY INDUSTRIES IN HAINAN PROVINCE

LI Linzi, LI Xiaomin, LIN Jiquan, et al

2021, 23(1):  69-78.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210104.002

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Alerting resources environmental carrying capacity helps directly diagnose the status of resources environmental carrying capacity during industrial development, timely make and adjust approaches to industrial development and realize sustainable development. This paper, based on Hainan's 12 key industries, uses alerting technology to set up alerting methods of resources environmental carrying capacity of key industries. In Hainan province, such alerting of tropical agriculture of environmental carrying capacity mainly happens in Wenchang city and Qionghai city, alerting of water resources in the northwest, altering of industries in oceanic oil-gas concentrating Yangpu economic zone. Severe and moderate alerting is in medicine and oceanic oil-gas industrial layout. Local altering happens in tourism and services industries chiefly due to the demands of population over the infrastructures. This paper presents differentiated development and control measurements for key industries of different alerting in different regions, in order to reach a sustainable development under resources environmental carrying capacity.

FORECAST OF NATURAL GAS MARKET YIELD BASED ON DATA ANALYSIS

XIANG Youtao, CAO Lin

2021, 23(1):  79-86.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20201211.001

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This paper, based on Americas natural gas price from 2000 to 2018, establishes DTW-SVM-SA(dynamic time warping-support vector machine-simulated annealing) combined model to forecast the natural gas price. It also compares the DTM-SVM-SA modeling results with comparison modeling results at different intervals, and evaluates its forecasting accuracy and error. Simulated annealing algorithm can optimize the free parameters of SVM and weight parameters of the combined model. DTM-SVM-SA model shows a good generalized capacity in forecasting natural gas yield, with outstandingly rising accuracy at difference intervals and decreasing error, which is an effective gas price forecasting model. DTW-SVM-SA model can not only provide references for governmental macroscopic controls, but also help enterprises better forecast and manage risks in price changes, especially for energy enterprises.

COOPERATIVE MECHANISM OF TRANS-STREAM ECOLOGICAL COMPENSATION EVOLUTION BASED ON REPUTATION EFFECT

SUN Fuhua, ZHANG Xiaojie, GAO Xin, et al

2021, 23(1):  87-96.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210108.001

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Trans-stream ecological compensation is a vital means to improve ecological capital values, protect stream ecology and promote regional sustainable development. Governments will bear issues of reputation during making decision and conduction of ecological compensation projects which are of social environmental benefits and public interests. This paper sets the gaming scenarios of water source and water reception, and incorporates loss cost, ecological gain, transfer payment, and reputation as well to establish an ecological compensation evolution gaming model in discussing their gaming evolution process and factors between water source and water reception by means of stream managing administration and governmental reputation function. Matlab is used to analyze the influence of parameter changes on stakeholder's selection. Ten factors impacting the cooperation evolution include rewards and punishment, water source protection cost, water reception transferred compensation payment, pollution treatment benefits, reputation-converted benefits. This paper presents suggestions on intensifying stream administrative functions, raising public and enterprise's awareness of environmental protection, establishing reputation evaluation mechanism and setting up multiple ecological compensation paths.

PEAK PREDICTION AND REDUCTION STRATEGY OF CARBON EMISSION IN YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE

TIAN Ze, ZHANG Hongyang, NIU Wenjie

2021, 23(1):  97-105.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210104.004

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Yangtze river economic zone is China's green ridge in ecological civilization construction, and its carbon reduction impacts the entire China's development. This paper, with the background of “stepping up conservation of the Yangtze river”, uses generalized dimensional index decomposition to study the driving factors and contribution ratio of carbon emission evolution in 11 provinces (cites) in Yangtze river economic zone from 2005 to 2016, applies expanded STIRPAT model to simulate six scenarios to predict the carbon emission peak and time from 2017 to 2030, and presents strategies of carbon emission reduction. Economic scale is the leading factor contributing to carbon emission increment in Yangtze river economic zone with a falling contribution. Energy consumption intensity and output carbon intensity are two vital factors in reducing carbon emission, while energy intensity does little, suggesting technical advances is a key factor in promoting carbon emission reduction. The premium path to carbon emission reduction is medium-growth-high-emission-reduction among six scenarios, and carbon emission may reach the peak in advance under the high-emission-reduction mode. Carbon emission may not reach the peak in 2030 if carbon emission intensity is gently slowing down with a relatively fast economic growth.