Table of Content

20 June 2023, Volume 25 Issue 3

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CARBON EMISSION FEATURES AND PEAK PREDICTION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

GAO Shan, CAO Mingxia, LI Dan

2023, 25(3):  1-9.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230509.001

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Carbon emission estimation and peak planning are effective local attempts to materialize nation ‘s “dual-carbon” objective. This paper, based on the connection between carbon emission estimation and carbon peaking forecast,estimates Jiangsu ‘s carbon emission from energy consumption, industrial and agricultural production and waste disposal,overviews the phased features of regional carbon emission, energy use and industrial structures, and uses Kaya formula to set up key factors,which are employed to forecast the developing potential of population, economic growth and energy structures. Carbon reduction paths and carbon peaking plans are designed under low, middle and high carbon peaking scenarios. Jiangsu ‘s carbon emission from 2005 to 2019 shows a fluctuated increment at a gentle speed, and increases by 1.11 times, mainly contributed by high-carbon energy and industrial structures, up to 90% from energy consumption and industrial production, along with rice planting and solid waste incineration. Future carbon emission is closely related to population, economic growth, energy intensity, energy structure. Among three carbon peaking scenarios from 2020 to 2030, Jingsu ‘s carbon emission will peak at 1.026 billion tons in 2027 in low constraint plan, three years earlier than in middle and high constraint plans with extra reduction of 0.054 and 0.112 billion tons respectively. Low constraint plan is consistent with international rules, favorable for achieving carbon reduction and carbon neutralization. This paper suggests controlling carbon increment scale, promoting implementation of low constraint plan, focusing on clean replacement of renewable energy and low carbon technical applications of manufacturing, transportation, construction and agriculture while maintaining economic stability.

AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSION EFFICIENCY AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SHAANXI CITIES

FENG Fei, FENG Jiani

2023, 25(3):  10-18.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.004

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Agriculture is the second major source of greenhouse gas emission, also one of key carbon emissions. How to develop agriculture while protecting ecological environment is related to realizing high-quality agricultural development.This paper uses Shaanxi ‘s 10 prefectures ‘ panel data from 2005 to 2020, combined with super-efficiency SBM model and ML index model, to estimate their agricultural carbon emission efficiencies, and employs Tobit model to study the major influencing factors.Static agricultural carbon emission efficiency estimated by super-efficiency SBM model is rising and at a high level in Xi ‘an. It is above 1 and also at a high level in Shangluo, but consistently below 1 with no improvement in Tongchuan, Weinan and Yulin, fluctuating in other cities. Dynamic agricultural carbon emission efficiencies from ML index have improved mainly due to technical advances, which has not greatly contributed to their increase. Factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Shaanxi ‘s cities based on Tobit model suggest a notable positive relation between agricultural economy and carbon emission efficiency, indicating the more advanced economy, the higher carbon emission efficiency.Production structure and farmland scale have an outstanding negative relation with agricultural carbon emission efficiency, implying that a lower rationalization degree of agricultural production structure, or a larger farmland scale, is not favorable for increasing agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Urbanization level and hazarded crops are generally negatively related to agricultural carbon emission efficiency.This paper presents suggestions for Shaanxi province on increasing agricultural technologies, promoting industrial structural rationalization, raising urbanization level, decreasing crop hazarded degree, and boosting a high-quality agricultural development.

EVOLUTIONARY GAMING ANALYSIS ON GREEN ENERGY INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION UNDER GLOBAL CARBON NEUTRALIZATION

XIAO Yutong, CHEN Jun

2023, 25(3):  19-30.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.001

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To get rid of zero-sum game in industrialized culture and to promote an equal global green energy cooperation in harnessing the global climate has become a vital global topic in carbon neutralization and human ‘s mutual community. This paper, based on developing stages, capabilities and responsibilities on global climate changes in developing and developed countries,analyzes the implementation mechanism of global green energy cooperation. A dynamic evolutionary gaming model is used to discuss an interaction between developed and developing countries on green energy competition and cooperation. Simulation is applied to study the impacts of initial major parameters ‘ changes on both gaming strategies under multiple scenarios, aiming at obtaining a dynamic evolutionary path and a stable strategy. Developed countries are complementary with developing ones in resources, market structures and developing desires.Green energy cooperation involving their mutual benefits, helpful in reaching the global carbon neutralization, is the optimal strategy. Governmental incentive policies playing a key role in their strategic choices may be increased as the expected benefits on global green energy coalition rises. A decreasing cost and risk in global green energy cooperation is favorable to reaching a win-win status between the gaming parties.Enhancing global green energy cooperation, mutually dealing with global climate changes and accelerating global carbon neutralization need to focus on governmental support, which can improve participants ‘ enthusiasm in global green energy coalition and increase the potential gains.Companies shall boost green low-carbon technical innovation to better develop and use green energy globally at a lower cost.All countries shall be cooperative in global green energy with removal of cold war views and zero-sum idea for a global transformation to green low-carbon development.

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL VARIANCE AND CONVERGENCE OF URBAN PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION BASED ON CHINA ‘S 243 PREFECTURES DATA

WANG Bangjun, CUI Linyu

2023, 25(3):  31-41.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.003

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Regional energy consumption variance has been negatively impacting economic structural transformation and China ‘s energy strategies due to multiple factors. Energy structure and energy consumption trend are studied to promote a coordinated development among economy, society, energy and environment, and materialize an optimized energy structural allocation and boost economic sustainability.This paper uses China ‘s 243 prefectures ‘ urban per capita energy consumption panel data from 2005 to 2019 to study the temporal-spatial distribution and evolution, and applies σ, β and club convergence to recognize its converging level of urban per capita energy consumption, and employs ordered regression model to study the mechanism of urban resources and initial resource development on urban per capita energy consumption transferring path. In China ‘s 243 prefectures, the urban per capita energy consumption has no overall convergence but club convergence, 4 converging clubs and 1 diverging club. Initial energy consumption level, urban industrial structure, opening-up level and per capital consumption level are the vital factors impacting club convergence. Opening-up level plays a negative role, and urban economic level and industrialized level play positively in clubs with higher per capita energy consumption. The reverse applies in clubs with lower per capita energy consumption. All factors work little in clubs with average. This paper presents suggestions on making appropriate policies and adjusting measures, maintaining proper population growth rate, increasing innovative level, altering industrial structure and degrading urban energy consumption.

COLOMBIA ‘S OIL-GAS FISCAL & TAX POLICIES ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING BASED ON MULTI-SCENARIO ECONOMIC EVALUATION

WANG Bin

2023, 25(3):  42-52.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230427.003

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Oil-gas contracts and fiscal & tax polices,which are two core factors in investing overseas oil-gas, largely determine the gain distribution mode and proportion between investors and hosting governments. This paper studies Colombia ‘s oil-gas fiscal & tax policies aiming at providing reference for Chinese investors under new situation. After introducing the history and situation of Colombia ‘s oil-gas fiscal & tax contracts, this paper establishes an economic evaluation model based on the fiscal & tax terms of new and  old oil-gas contracts, which is used to economically evaluate oil-gas projects under multiple scenarios from oil price, production scales and API degree. Evaluation system is constructed, including 9 indicators on fiscal & tax economy and stability, to benchmark the top ten oil-gas resources countries in this area. Colombia ‘s new contract mode decreases the involvement and economic gain of hosting government and increases foreign investors ‘ operating freedom and economic gains. Multiple scenarios economic evaluation shows that the net cash flow per cubic meter under the high oil price is more than that of the low oil price. Heavy oil assets with lower API degree have tax incentives, and the tax cost per cubic meter increases under the high production scale. Colombia ‘s oil-gas fiscal & tax attractiveness benchmark shows that it ranks the fourth among South America ‘s top 10 oil-gas countries. Colombia ‘s oil-gas resources and fiscal & tax policies are of relative advantages in this area, of prospecting outlook in future oil-gas cooperation.This paper presents suggestion for Chinese investors on paying more attention to investing oil-gas industry in Colombia, focusing on the impact of assets type on economic benefits, and risks brought by policy adjustment.

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF CHINA ‘S ENERGY SECURITY POLICY TEXTS BASED ON CONTENT ANALYSIS

ZHOU Haiwei, XU Ying

2023, 25(3):  53-68.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230427.001

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Policy files have long been providing regulations for energy security. As energy security gets increasingly complicated, energy security policy making is facing new requirements. To clarify the topics, intensity and pattern of existing energy security policies, this paper sets up a 3D framework of “policy pivot point-intensity-tool” to provide reference for optimizing energy security policy system, and applies content analysis method to make quantitative and temporal-spatial analysis of 270 energy security policies from 1957 to 2021. Energy saving is the first priority to energy security. Northeastern China focuses on gas and heat supply, central China on green and security, eastern China on non-governmental organizations, and western China on the tie of energy and water, all missing environmental security and government assessment. Total intensity of policy rises with its quantity. Up to 85 pieces of policies are issued during the 13th Five-Year Plan, when the total intensity is the greatest. Mandatory policy tools are used at a rate of 89.07%, of which “prohibitionregulations” amounting to 26.8%, followed by “clarifying responsibilities” amounting to 14.15%. Hybrid and voluntary policy tools are used at a rate of 5.51% and 5.42%. This paper presents suggestions on paying more attention to assessment, environment and security,on pushing social organizations and funds into energy security, on making energy security strategies, constructing energy security policy system and planning policy issuing organizations, on deliberately reducing mandatory policy tools, improving governing methods and decreasing administrative costs. Government shall coordinate hybrid policy tools to fulfill marketing mechanism, and expand volunteer policy tools to boost advocation and intensify energy security awareness.

EVOLUTIONARY MECHANISM OF SUPPLY-DEMAND DEPENDENCE NETWORK OF CHINA ‘S NEW ENERGY VEHICLE INDUSTRY

LI Yang, LI Huajiao, FENG Sida

2023, 25(3):  69-81.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230427.002

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China ‘s new energy vehicle industry is expanding as a strategic emerging industry and has become an important force in industrial upgrading. Its supply chain has been prolonged, detailed, and its industrial structure has been developing. Uncertain external environment and increasingly complicated internal structure make it important to understand the evolutionary mechanism and developing law of new energy vehicle industry. This paper, aiming at exploring the endogenous development mechanism of China ‘s new energy vehicle industry, uses China ‘s new energy vehicle trading data from 2008 to 2020 to establish a supply-demand dependance network among listed companies of this industry, and studies its evolutionary characteristics. Empirical research is carried out to verify evolutionary mechanism of the supply-demand dependance network based on financial data and public sentiment data, via stochastic actor-oriented model from three dimensions of endogenous network structure, situation factors and company attributes. China ‘s new energy vehicle industry shows a local-centralized supply-demand dependence structure, and regional leading enterprises are boosting their abilities in controlling supply chain. Formation and evolution of industrial supply-demand dependence network is impacted by endogenous mechanism, such as preference attachment effect and triangle loop effect, and promoted by co-executive relationship. This paper presents suggestions for advancing China ‘s new energy vehicle industry on regional commercial cooperation, optimizing co-executive relationship and caring vulnerable companies.Governments and professional associations should continue boosting industrial cluster construction and supporting regional integration on policies and standards, enhancing free migration of capital, technical and industrial data.Industrial policies are adjusted to optimize industrial demand-supply relation through constraining or promoting co-executive relationship.Tracking commercial sentiment can recognize potential dependance relation, comprehend industrial network dependance structure, helpful in directing investment and recognizing risks. Governments shall take care of vulnerable companies, be vigilant on industrial structural imbalance, and also pay attention to notable companies with higher standard operating code and supervision, fully disclosing their financial information.

MEASUREMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA BASED ON INCLUSIVE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

WANG Jigan, BAO Tingting, XING Zhencheng

2023, 25(3):  82-91.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.008

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Construction of Yangtze River Delta is guided by five major development concepts of innovation, coordination, green, sharing and openness in the new era. Measurement of the inclusive total factor productivity in Yangtze River Delta ‘s 26 prefectures, analysis of its development law, and judgement of each city ‘s developing trend, can provide reference for high-quality development of Yangtze River Delta. This paper uses 26 prefectures ‘ panel data from 2007 to 2019 to establish an inclusive total factor productivity index system based on five major development concepts to analyze their high-quality economic level, and applies GIS and kernel density to estimate their dynamic evolutional laws. Yangtze River Delta has a rising and high development level. Shanghai is the top, followed by Jiangsu, then Zhejiang, with Anhui at the bottom. Shanghai gets a score of inclusive total factor productivity at 1.161, Jiangsu at 0.949, Zhejiang at 0.835, Anhui at 0.815. Among Yangtze River Delta city cluster, twelve cities are at the high level, and one city is at the low level in 2019. High-quality economic development level has been rising over years with emerging clusters, but gaps also swell among cities as polarization. Yangtze River Delta cities should break regional barriers and promote regional coordinated development. Shanghai should play the leading role and attach importance to infrastructural construction, integrated circuit, biological medicine, and artificial intelligence. Jiangsu should focus on digital economy and innovative system.Zhejiang should boost a linked development of Hangzhou and Ningbo with Shanghai.Anhui should adjust industrial structure, reduce heavy pollution industries, and adopt proper economic policies to promote the regional development among its cities.

IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS ON INVESTING INCLINATION OF HEAVILY POLLUTING COMPANIES: BASED ON CHINA’S A-LISTED COMPANIES’ DATA

QIU Lei, MA Beiwen, ZHOU Qin, CHENG Changgao

2023, 25(3):  92-106.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.007

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Environmental regulation can promote saving-energy-reducing-emission, and is a path to China ‘s green development. Companies will select appropriate investing strategies against strict environmental regulations.To explore how companies to confront environmental regulations with investing inclinations can help weigh execution effects of environmental regulations and provide suggestions on making proper environmental regulations.This paper uses environmental regulation indicators to estimate its regulation intensity of China ‘s 31 provinces(cities), and checks their investing inclinations of heavily polluting companies from green transformation motive and market profiting motive based on 2010—2019 A-listed heavily polluting companies ‘ non-balanced panel data, analyzes the effects under company ownership heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity, and further tests the potential mechanism of their investing inclinations. Study shows that environmental regulation largely promotes the green technical innovation of heavily polluting companies, but little on financialization.As environmental regulation gets enhanced, heavily polluting companies prefer to invest in green technical innovation, rather than increasing financial assets to deal with environmental harness pressure.This conclusion validates in lagging analysis, addingaltering controlling variables, dual clustering stability tests. Compared with central & western Chinese companies and private companies, environmental regulation promotes green technical innovation behaviors and quality more for eastern Chinese companies and state-owned companies. Further tests imply that intensifying environmental regulation may relieve its financing constraints to some degree, so promoting green technical innovation for heavily polluting companies.This paper suggests China continue to increase its environmental regulation standard and intensity, appropriately apply differentiated environmental policies, and encourage heavily polluting companies to carry out green competition, advance green financing development, establish environmental protection financing mechanism to mitigate financing problems, and support green financing business at the same time.

RELATION AMONG ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION TAX, TECHNICAL INNOVATION AND MANUFACTURING PERFORMANCE UNDER MODERATED MEDIATION

ZHANG Qian, MEI Yali, WANG Kui

2023, 25(3):  107-120.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.002

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Technical innovation has become an important approach to economic development and eco-environmental carrying capacity to meet grim environmental challenges. Environmental protection tax is key to green economic transformation, and provides opportunities for manufacturing industry in green harness and promoting performance.This paper, based on Porter hypothesis and China ‘s listed manufacturing companies' data from 2009 to 2020, establishes a regression model adjusted by stock option and executive package incentives,with technical innovation as mediation, which is used to verify the effects of environmental protection tax on manufacturing performance and technical innovation. Results show that environmental protection tax is notably positive with manufacturing performance at 1% level, suggesting the tax improves performance. Environmental protection tax pushes technical innovation to increase performance level. Technical innovation partially plays a mediation between its environmental protection tax and manufacturing performance, and stock option and executives package incentives play a negative mediation: the higher stock option and executive package incentives, the lower the manufacturing performance from environmental protection tax on technical innovation. Imposing environmental protection tax has initially gained achievements, providing references to further reform environmental protection tax and improve manufacturing performance level. This paper presents suggestions for governments on continuously optimizing environmental protection tax, providing policy and regime guarantee in boosting environmental protection and promoting manufacturing industry's green transformation and upgrade, and for manufacturing industry on fulfilling technical innovation, conducting green harness to reach a quality development.

R&D INTENSITY, TAX INCENTIVE AND INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE OF CHINA ‘S LISTED AGRICULTURAL COMPANIES: BASED ON RESOURCEBASED THEORY

DU Xiaorong, LI Yufan

2023, 25(3):  121-132.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.005

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Agriculture is China‘s fundamental industry. Improving innovative ability of agricultural listed companies is the key to boosting agricultural modernization and developing rural areas.Resource is an important factor in companies‘ R&D and innovation. This paper uses resource-based theory to study the influence of R&D intensity of China‘s listed agricultural companies on their innovative performance and its mechanism,and incorporates tax incentive into model to reveal the relation between R&D intensity and innovative performance under different land resources, which can provide references for listed agricultural companies to make R&D strategy and improve innovative performance. This paper, based on the data of China‘s 2011 to 2020 A-listed agricultural companies, uses Hausman test and dual fixed effect model to study the relation between R&D intensity and innovative performance, and checks the mediation of tax incentive.Results show an upside-down U-shape relation, with most companies in the rising stage, boosted by the tax incentive. R&D intensity promotes innovative performance through precipitation of redundant resources, outstandingly in those companies with more land resources. Proper R&D intensity impacts the growth of listed companies ‘ innovative performance.This paper gives proposals for China‘s listed agricultural companies to boost regional R&D cooperation based on their resources and developing status,expand the space for agricultural multi-function and value-added efficiency, increase their R&D intensity to improve their innovative performance as a core competitiveness, but beware of over R&D intensity bringing negative impacts. Governments shall dynamically use tax policies to maximize its incentive.

IMPACTS OF GOAL PROGRESS INFORMATION AND SELF-CONSTRUAL ON REPEATED LOW CARBON CONSUMPTION MOTIVATION

HE Lishi, DING Yanyu

2023, 25(3):  133-144.  DOI: 10.13776j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230426.006

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Low carbon consumption is one of the key paths to “dual carbon” objective, but individuals are not motivated to repeated low carbon consumption, which puts pressure on carbon reduction from stimulating consumption end. Properly stimulating low carbon consumption is not only beneficial for nation ‘s green low carbon strategy, but also meaningful for market competition.This paper uses stimulus-organism-response model to study the interaction of goal progress(to date vs. to go) and self-construal(interdependent vs. independent) on repeated low carbon consumption motivation through random questionnaire, and the mediation of perceived consumer effectiveness. Goal progress information and self-construal have an interaction on individual repeated low carbon consumption motivation. For individuals with interdependent self-construal, “to date” goal progress information has a greater effect on repeated low carbon consumption motivation, but for individuals with independent self-construal, there is no difference.Perceived consumer effectiveness plays a mediating role in the process. Interaction exists between goal progress information and self-construal and perceived consumer effectiveness. “To date” goal progress information has a greater effect on the perceived consumer effectiveness of individuals with interdependent self-construal, while both goal progress information has similar influence on the perceived consumer effectiveness of individuals with independent self-construal. This paper presents suggestions for companies in designing effective communication strategies and stimulating repeated low carbon consumption, and provides reference for China ‘s “dual carbon” objective.Companies can make clear and appropriate carbon reduction goal, show timely goal progress information, recognize different potential consumers and cast differentiated information.