“资源诅咒”假说研究评述与展望

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20241107.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在经济发展的初期阶段，丰裕的自然资源通常被视为促进经济增长的有利因素。然而，经验研究表明并非所有经济体都能运用其自然资源走上可持续发展道路，资源繁荣地区经济发展水平最终往往被资源的丰裕所拖累，陷入增长陷阱。这种“悖论”被定义为“资源诅咒”假说。为理清自然资源对经济增长是“诅咒”还是“福音”，学者们围绕相关议题展开了诸多的理论探讨和实证分析。既有研究普遍认为自然资源开发行为通过“挤出”经济增长的核心要素对经济增长产生负面影响。国内外文献分别从不同角度构建统计模型，验证了丰裕的自然资源趋于阻碍经济增长的负效应，而因资源丰裕导致的环境恶化、产业单一以及分配不均等一系列问题，引起了社会各界对资源、环境和可持续发展之间关系的思考。“资源诅咒”假说成为发展经济学和区域经济学研究的热点。鉴于此，对“资源诅咒”假说相关研究进行了全面回顾，分别从起源与发展、内涵与理论解释以及实证研究等角度分析了“资源诅咒”假说的研究进展。综述研究发现简单的线性关系已不足以描述自然资源对经济增长的影响，采用非线性框架模拟资源繁荣与经济增长的有条件资源诅咒论已逐渐形成并得到研究者的支持。基于对相关文献的总结分析和实证检验的统计观察，认为现有研究的理论启示主要是：尽管对于“资源诅咒”发生的控制变量还存在多种解释，但是资源依赖与经济发展的负相关性是普遍存在的，资源型地区对自然资源依赖度越高，其经济发展就越容易遭受“资源诅咒”。今后研究应更好地解决关键变量指标的内生性问题，选取合适的工具变量、统计样本以及计量方法，增强“资源诅咒”假说实证结论的稳健性。同时，应深化在中国背景下对“资源诅咒”产生原因与作用机理的研究，探索资源型地区在面临“资源诅咒”时的转型发展新路径。

关键词: “资源诅咒”假说, 资源繁荣, 经济增长, 传导路径

Abstract: At the initial stage of economic development, abundance of natural resources is normally regarded as a favorable factor for economic growth. However, not all economies can obtain sustainable development by their natural resources. Economies of areas with abundant resources have declined due to their resources, falling into a growth trap. This is so-called “resource curse” hypothesis. To clarify if natural resources are either a “curse” or a “drive” to economic growth, researchers have done lots of work on theories and practices. One prevailing viewpoint is that development of natural resources adversely affects economy through “squeezing” the core elements of economic growth. Some statistical models from different perspectives verify that abundance of natural resources trend to hinder economic growth, leading to issues such as worsening environment, simple industry and uneven distribution. It attracts lots of attentions to the relation among resources, environment and sustainable development. “Resource curse” hypothesis is becoming a research hotspot in development economics and regional economics. This paper overviews the “resource curse” hypothesis, analyzes the research advances from origin, evolution, connotation, theoretical explanation and cases, and finds out that natural resources impact economy not in a simply linear way, but in a non-linear way, which has been widely agreed by researchers. Explanations of controlling variables of “resources curse” are variable, but it is agreed that resource dependence is negative to economy, and the higher dependence, the more subject to “resource curse”. The future research should be focused on endogeneity of key variables, selecting appropriate tool variables, samples and methods to increase robustness of conclusion of “resource curse” hypothesis. This paper presents suggestions on exploring causes and mechanisms of “resource curse” in China and attempting new path to transformation in resource-based areas against “resource curse”

Key words: resource curse” hypothesis, resource bloom, economic growth, transmission path

中图分类号:

F205

康静. “资源诅咒”假说研究评述与展望[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(1): 1-10.

KANG Jing. OVERVIEWS AND OUTLOOK FOR “RESOURCE CURSE” HYPOTHESIS[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(1): 1-10.

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