绿色金融对碳排放水平的影响研究——基于“量”与“质”的双重视角

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20241115.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 实现碳达峰碳中和目标需多元施策，多方共治，绿色金融作为与低碳经济发展紧密契合的时代产物，在持续推进“双碳”战略过程中发挥着不可替代的作用。绿色金融如何影响碳排放总量和碳排放强度，即如何助推碳排放“量”和“质”双控目标的实现，成为亟待揭示的黑箱机制。采用2009—2021年中国30个省份面板数据作为研究样本，运用熵值法对绿色金融进行度量，构建多元回归模型，从理论和实证的角度考察绿色金融对碳排放“量”与“质”的影响，选取产业结构升级、市场化水平作为中介变量和调节变量，构建中介效应模型和调节效应模型检验绿色金融发展影响碳排放总量、碳排放强度的作用机制。研究结果表明：1）绿色金融与碳排放总量、碳排放强度之间均表现出显著的负相关关系，即绿色金融对碳排放“降量提质”具有协同效应，在经过滞后一期解释变量、改变样本容量、替换被解释变量、改变时间区间一系列稳健性检验后，结论保持不变。2）进一步考察产业结构升级在绿色金融与碳排放水平之间的作用机制后发现，产业结构升级是绿色金融影响碳排放量和碳排放强度的中介机制，绿色金融通过推动产业结构升级，进而助力碳减排与碳增效的实现。3）市场化水平会正向调节绿色金融与碳排放水平的关系，即市场化水平越高，绿色金融对碳排放总量、碳排放强度的负向影响作用越强。4）与东部地区、非资源型省份、政府干预程度低的地区相比，绿色金融减排增效的协同作用在中西部地区、资源型省份、政府干预程度高的地区中展现出更为显著和强劲的效果。基于以上结论，提出如下建议：完善绿色金融体系，利用降碳机制赋能产业结构低碳转型，辩证施策的同时强化区域交流，坚持市场与政府两手发力，多方主体投入，进一步推动绿色金融发展以助力碳减排可持续发展。

关键词: 绿色金融, 碳排放总量, 碳排放强度, 产业结构升级, 市场化水平

Abstract: To reach the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality needs to diversify policies and management, during which green financing as a product closely connected to low carbon economy plays an irreplaceable role. It is necessary to reveal how green financing impacts gross carbon emission and carbon emission intensity, and how to realize the dual control target of carbon emission quantity and quality. This paper, based on panel data of China's 30 provinces from 2009 to 2021, uses entropy to measure green financing, and establishes a multiple regression model to estimate the impacts of green financing on carbon emission from perspectives of theory and cases. Industrial structural upgrading and marketization level are selected as mediating variable and moderating variable to construct a mediating effect model and a moderating effect model to test the mechanism of green financing impacting gross carbon emission and intensity. Results show a strong negative relation between green financing and gross carbon emission and intensity, which is confirmed by robustness tests of lagging explanatory variables, changing sample volumes, replacing explained variables and changing time zones. Industrial structural upgrading plays a mediating role during green financing impacting carbon emission and intensity. Green financing pushes industrial structural upgrading, and further helps reduce carbon emission and increase carbon efficiency. Marketization level positively adjusts the relation between green financing and carbon emission. The higher marketization level, the stronger negatively impacting of green financing on gross carbon emission and intensity. Green financing's synergism of reducing emission and increasing efficiency plays a more important role in central-western, resources-based provinces, and government highly-intervened areas compared to eastern, non-resources-based provinces, and government lowly-intervened areas. This paper presents suggestions on optimizing green financing system, fulfilling low-carbon transformation of industrial structures, intensifying regional exchange, persisting in governmental administration and marketing, further boosting green financing to realize sustainable development.

Key words: green financing, gross carbon emission, carbon emission intensity, industrial structural upgrading, marketization level

中图分类号:

F205
F062.2

梁媛, 周娟美, 吴云霞. 绿色金融对碳排放水平的影响研究——基于“量”与“质”的双重视角[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(1): 50-62.

LIANG Yuan, ZHOU Juanmei, WU Yunxia. IMPACTS OF GREEN FINANCING ON CARBON EMISSION LEVELS BASED ON DUAL PERSPECTIVES OF QUANTITY AND QUALITY[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(1): 50-62.

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