Abstract: The low carbon development, industrial structural optimization and upgrade of JJJ as a national key strategy region plays a key role in China's low carbon industrial development, carbon emission reduction performance of sectors is of significance for regional carbon emission reduction. Dynamic panel GMM model and VAR model are used to analyze the impacts of JJJ industrial structural rationalization and optimization on carbon emission, and multiple-formula-linked regression is applied to logical causality and short-term shock effects of related economy variables. Results show carbon emission can be reduced upon JJJ industrial structural optimization and rationalization, although varying with localities. This paper offers suggestions on carbon emission reduction according to the impacts of JJJ industrial structural optimization on carbon emission.

Key words: JJJ, industrial structural optimization, carbon emission, dynamic panel GMM model, VAR model

摘要： 京津冀地区作为国家重点战略发展区域，其低碳发展、产业结构优化升级在中国的低碳产业发展中举足轻重，各产业的碳减排成效对地区减排目标的实现具有重要意义。论文利用动态面板的系统GMM模型分析2000—2017年京津冀区域的产业结构合理化与高级化对碳排放的影响程度，构建VAR模型具体分析京津冀三地的产业结构合理化与高级化对碳排放的影响差异，采用多方程联立的形式回归分析相关经济变量间的逻辑因果关系以及短期冲击效应。研究结果表明：1）京津冀地区整体产业结构高级化与合理化会降低碳排放；2）京津冀三地的产业结构的高级化与合理化水平分别对本地区的碳排放影响存在差异。最后，基于京津冀地区产业结构优化对碳排放的影响，分别对各地区的碳减排提出相关政策建议。

关键词: 京津冀, 产业结构优化, 碳排放, 动态面板的系统GMM模型, VAR模型