ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT DYNAMIC MODELLING AND MEASUREMENT OF LOESS PLATEAU VALLEY BASED ON
ARIMA MODEL: A CASE STUDY ON LANZHOU CITY

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20231219.004

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the causes of eco-footprint dynamic changes from perspective of economic development, this paper measures the developing path of the per capita ecological footprint from 2002 to 2014 in Lanzhou, a loess plateau valley city, uses ARIMA model to forecast its ecological footprint changing trend from 2015 to 2020. The per capita ecological footprint is rising from 2.70 hm² in 2002 to 4.25 hm² in 2014, increase of 1.57 times. And the rising rate of the per capita ecological footprint reaches to 4.04%, 7.84% lower than its GDP’s growing rate 11.88%, suggesting Lanzhou’s economic development speed is higher than speed of resources and environmental consumption. The per capita ecological footprint of Lanzhou from 2015 to 2020 still shows a rising trend, forecasted to reach up to 4.48 hm², 4.61 hm², 4.75 hm², 4.89 hm², 5.02 hm² and 5.17 hm², with an enlarging ecological deficit. Lanzhou’s gross ecological footprint is 19.59 times of the total area of urban land use, indicating a strong correlation between economic growth and ecological demands,indicating the inflection point of Environmental Kuznets curve doesn’t take place, implying a unsustainable status. This paper presents a path to decreasing Lanzhou’s ecological footprint from adjusting industrial structure, decreasing ecological deficit to promote economic quality and sustainable capacity, advancing green development, and constructing an ecological network of ecological diversity, appropriate layout, full-functional integration of natural ecosystems and rural-urban union to increase eco-environmental capacity.

Key words: loess plateau, valley city, ARIMA model, ecological footprint, dynamic modelling

摘要：

为了从经济发展的角度探究生态足迹动态变化的成因，论文在测算黄土高原河谷城市——甘肃省兰州市2002—2014年人均生态足迹的发展轨迹的基础上，引入ARIMA模型，模拟预测了该市2015—2020年生态足迹变化趋势。研究结果显示：1）2002—2014年，甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹总体呈现上升态势，数值由2.70 hm²增长至4.25 hm²，增幅达到1.57倍；2）从生态足迹增速看，2002—2014年人均生态足迹平均增速达到4.04%，同一时期兰州市地区生产总值平均增速为11.88%，较人均生态足迹增速高出7.84%，表明该地区经济发展的速度高于资源环境消耗的速度；3）2015—2020年甘肃省兰州市人均生态足迹仍然呈现上升态势，预测值分别达到4.48 hm²、4.61 hm²、4.75 hm²、4.89 hm²、5.02 hm²和5.17 hm²，甘肃省兰州市生态赤字逐年增大，总生态足迹是城市土地利用总面积的19.59倍，说明经济发展与地区生态需求呈现较强正相关性，环境库兹涅茨曲线“拐点”并未出现，处于不可持续发展状态。基于以上分析结果提出了甘肃省兰州市降低生态足迹的具体路径：1）实施产业结构调整，降低生态赤字，提升经济发展质量和可持续发展能力；2）推动绿色发展，构建生态类型多样、布局合理、功能完善的自然生态系统和城乡一体的生态网络，提高生态环境容量。

关键词: 黄土高原, 河谷城市, ARIMA模型, 生态足迹, 动态模拟

CLC Number:

F205
F124.5

YU Wenbao. ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DYNAMIC MODELLING AND MEASUREMENT OF LOESS PLATEAU VALLEY BASED ON ARIMA MODEL: A CASE STUDY ON LANZHOU CITY[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(1): 133-140.

虞文宝. 基于ARIMA模型的黄土高原河谷城市生态足迹动态模拟及测算——以甘肃省兰州市为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 133-140.

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ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DYNAMIC MODELLING AND MEASUREMENT OF LOESS PLATEAU VALLEY BASED ON ARIMA MODEL: A CASE STUDY ON LANZHOU CITY

基于ARIMA模型的黄土高原河谷城市生态足迹动态模拟及测算——以甘肃省兰州市为例

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