COUPLING TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION BETWEEN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA（CHONGQING SECTION）

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20250306.002

Abstract

Abstract: To explore the coupling relationship between ecological security and food security, this paper, taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area（Chongqing Section）as a case, establishes an evaluation index system of coupling coordination between ecological security and food security and an evaluation model, which is used to estimate ecological security index and food security index and to study their temporal-spatial evolution.A driving factor model is built to measure gray correlation of indicators in ecological security system and food security system, and to analyze their impacts in their systems.A coupling coordination model and relative development model are constructed to study the temporal-spatial evolution and relative development of coupling coordination between ecological security system and food security system.Ecological security level in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area（Chongqing Section）shows a fluctuating declining trend from 2000 to 2020, with its index dropping to 0.379 in 2020 from 0.411 in 2000, suggesting a growing pressure on its ecological security.The food security index also dropped from 0.363 in 2000 to 0.314 in 2020, indicating food security in an unfavorable status.Among evaluation indicators of ecological security system, farmland per capita and urbanization rate largely impact ecological security, GDP per capita and agricultural/forests/water expenditure play a secondary role.Among evaluation indicators of food security system, GDP of the first industry and gross crops production greatly affect food security, unit farmland pesticide use and unit food farmland consumption are the secondary factors.Their coupling coordination degree between ecological security system and food security system in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area（Chongqing Section） shows a fluctuating decreasing trend from 2000 to 2020, from 0.419 in 2000 to 0.405 in 2020 with the development stages of coupling coordination are grinding-in stage >in confliction state >in coordinated stage.The relative development types of ecological security system and food security system of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area（Chongqing Section） have five categories from 2000 to 2020, low coordination, low grinding-in, high coordination, high confliction, and high grinding-in, and relative development is characterized by ecological security synchronous with, behind or preceding food security.

Key words: Three Gorges Reservoir Area（Chongqing Section）, ecological security, food security, coupling-coordination

摘要： 为了探究生态安全与粮食安全之间的耦合关系，本文以三峡库区（重庆段）作为研究对象，首先构建了生态安全系统与粮食安全系统耦合协调评价指标体系，以及生态安全与粮食安全评价模型，并通过测算生态安全指数和粮食安全指数，以此研究了库区生态安全与粮食安全的时空演变特征；其次再通过构建驱动因子模型，分别测算了库区生态安全系统与粮食安全系统中各项评价指标的灰色关联度，从而分析了2个系统中不同评价指标对各自系统的影响程度；最后还通过构建耦合协调模型及相对发展模型，进而对库区生态安全系统与粮食安全系统分别进行了耦合协调类型时空演变分析，以及耦合协调相对发展水平分析。研究结果表明：1）2000—2020年三峡库区（重庆段）的生态安全水平呈现出波动下降的发展趋势，生态安全指数从2000年的0411波动下降至了2020年的0.379，表明在研究期内库区的生态安全压力得到了加大。2）2000—2020年三峡库区（重庆段）的粮食安全水平也呈现出了波动下降的发展趋势，粮食安全指数从2000年的0.363波动下降至了2020年的0.314，表明在研究期内库区的粮食安全形势处于不利的发展态势之中。3）在生态安全系统的各项评价指标中，人均耕地面积、城镇化率对生态安全发挥的影响作用较大，而人均GDP、农林水支出对生态安全发挥的影响作用影响较小。在粮食安全系统的各项评价指标中，第一产业生产总值、粮食总产量对粮食安全发挥的影响作用较大，而单位耕地农药使用量、单位粮食耕地消耗量对粮食安全发挥的影响作用较小。4）2000—2020年三峡库区（重庆段）生态安全系统与粮食安全系统的耦合协调度呈现出了波动下降的发展趋势，由2000年的0.419波动下降至了2020年的0.405，而耦合协调发展阶段均为磨合期>拮抗期>协调期。5）2000—2020年三峡库区（重庆段）生态安全系统与粮食安全系统的相对发展类型主要有低度协调、低度磨合、高度协调、高度拮抗、高度磨合5种；相对发展特征有生态安全同步于粮食安全、生态安全滞后于粮食安全、生态安全超前于粮食安全3种。

关键词: 三峡库区（重庆段）, 生态安全, 粮食安全, 耦合协调

CLC Number:

X321
F326.11

PENG Guochuan, CAO Jiameng, SHEN Na, GUAN Dongjie. COUPLING TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION BETWEEN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA（CHONGQING SECTION）[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(2): 77-91.

彭国川, 曹佳梦, 沈娜, 官冬杰. 三峡库区（重庆段）生态安全与粮食安全耦合时空演变分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(2): 77-91.

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COUPLING TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION BETWEEN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA（CHONGQING SECTION）

三峡库区（重庆段）生态安全与粮食安全耦合时空演变分析

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