A KIND OF“LAND-DEPLETION” PLANNING INDICATOR ESTIMATION BASED ON DECADE PANEL DATA OF CHINA'S 64 LARGE-MIDDLE CITIES

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20250702.006

Abstract

Abstract: Land intensive use is key way to a harmonious coexistence of humans and nature, and is also a demand for new urbanization and quality development. This paper, based on a research way of “overall induction to individual deduction” and decade panel data of China's 64 cities, uses classification statistics and panel data analysis to establish a planning indictor estimation of unit GDP construction land use area with “base value + correctional coefficient”. All 64 cities show a declining trend in “land consumption”, varying largely among cities levels with conglomeration inside level. Average statistics and panel regression are combined to establish a “land consumption” base values for different city levels, and determine their correctional coefficients from time and individuals, which is a feasible and practical estimation. Based on a case of Fangcheng port, this paper estimate its 2025 and 2035 “land consumption” planning indication values, which are adjusted from development strategies and construction land stock and planning system, dropping the error rates between indicator values and planning values to 3% and 6% from 21% and 11%, respectively. Such an estimation effectively simplifies the way determining indicators in planning policy making, compensates the virgin research domains, helps comparison and planning connection among cities, meaningful for land spatial planning indicator system construction.

Key words: unit GDP construction land use area, land intensive use, panel data, planning indicator

摘要： 土地节约集约利用是实现人与自然和谐共生的重要举措，也是新型城镇化与高质量发展的客观要求。论文按照“总体归纳式探究-个体演绎式应用”的研究范式，基于全国64个城市10年面板数据，使用分类统计和面板数据分析方法，尝试构建一种“基准值+修正系数”的单位GDP建设用地使用面积（下文简称“地耗”）规划指标估算方法体系。研究结果显示：1）各城市“地耗”水平普遍处于下降趋势，不同层级城市之间“地耗”差异性明显，层级内部则存在集聚效应；2）采用均值统计与面板回归分析相结合的方法，构建不同等级城市的“地耗”基准值，并从时间与个体角度确定修正系数，形成具备可行性与实用性的估算方法体系；3）以防城港为实例，估算2025年、2035年的“地耗”规划指标值，并从发展战略、建设用地存量与规划体系3个方面对估算结果做进一步调整，使指标值与国土空间规划中相应值的误差率从调整前的21%、11%降低为3%、6%。构建的包含基准值与修正系数的单位GDP建设用地使用面积合理值估算体系，有效简化了规划政策制定过程中该指标的确定方法，弥补了相关领域研究的空白，有利于不同城市之间进行横向比对与规划衔接，对于国土空间规划指标体系的构建具有积极的研究意义和借鉴价值。

关键词: 单位GDP建设用地使用面积, 土地集约利用, 面板数据, 规划指标

CLC Number:

F207
F301.24

ZHANG Jiancheng, ZHANG Jinting. A KIND OF“LAND-DEPLETION” PLANNING INDICATOR ESTIMATION BASED ON DECADE PANEL DATA OF CHINA'S 64 LARGE-MIDDLE CITIES[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(4): 109-118.

张健成, 张金亭. 一种“地耗”规划指标估算方法——基于全国64个大中城市10年面板数据分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(4): 109-118.

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