Abstract:

Coal is one of the most important energy resources in China. Under the pressure of environment protection and global climate change, the proportion of coal to the whole energy consumed will decrease in China. But considering the huge energy resources, China will still take coal as its major energy. During industrialization process, China will have a huge demand for energy. It is predicted that 92.4 billion tones of coal will be consumed from 2010 to 2035. Abundant as coal resource is, China's effective supply of coal is constrained by problems such as the separation of production and consumption areas, the high cost of mining, the increasing pressure of eco-environment, etc. Obviously it is unrealistic for China to meet such an enormous demand for coal by itself. Under the condition of safe supply of energy, it is reasonable to import appropriate amount of coal. Surrounding countries such as Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia and the far east area of Russia are abundant in coal and should be considered as the important sources of coal imported by China in the future.

Key words: coal, demand, supply, China

摘要：

煤炭是中国最重要的能源之一。受环境保护及全球气候变化的影响，未来25年内煤炭在中国能源消费中所占比例将下降，但考虑到中国的能源资源禀赋，煤炭仍将是中国最主要的能源。在未来的工业化过程中，中国将面临巨大的能源需求，预测表明2010—2035年，中国仍将消费924亿t煤炭。尽管中国煤炭资源丰富，但有效供给方面存在诸如生产区和消费区分离、生产成本高、生态环境压力大等问题。如此巨大的需求完全由国内来满足是不现实的。因此，在确保能源供应安全的前提下，保持适当的煤炭进口是一个合理选择。我国周边国家和地区煤炭资源丰富，澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、蒙古和俄罗斯远东地区应是重点考虑的进口来源地。

关键词: 煤炭, 需求, 供应, 中国