Abstract:

China will be focusing on developing renewable energy due to a pressure in climate change and environmental protection and energy safety, increasing non-fossil energy consumption percentage in one-time energy consumption. The renewable energy, low in energy density, high in development cost, needs breakthrough in key technologies, so it has weak market competitiveness. Hence, to develop renewable energy needs a scientific planning and structural optimization. In the future ten years, China will be facing many scenarios, which shall be understood well, favorable for presenting approaches to make sure sustainability in China’s renewable energy development.

Key words: scenario analysis, renewable energy, scientific innovation, energy substitute

摘要：

基气候变化和环境保护带来的压力，以及能源安全考虑，我国将大力发展可再生能源，逐步扩大非化石能源占一次能源消费的比重。可再生能源密度低，关键技术有待突破，开发成本高，市场竞争力弱，因此，可再生能源开发需要科学规划时间表及进行结构优化。未来10年，我国可再生能源开发面临的可能情境有多种，提前认知这些情境，有利于规划有针对性的对策，以保持我国可再生能源开发的可持续性。

关键词: 情境分析, 可再生能源, 科技创新, 能源替代