Abstract:

This paper, based on China’s 1985-2008 carbon dioxide emission data, GDP and energy consumption, analyzes the relation between carbon dioxide emission and economy and energy consumption via time series, and concludes that economic growth drives energy consumption, which leads to a rise in carbon dioxide emission. Energy consumption is not necessary for GDP increase, which has no clear direct causality to carbon dioxide emission. Rules of economy say that economy can develop without being linked to energy consumption. A low carbon economic development mode is independent upon energy consumption, especially on high-carbon fossil energy consumption.

Key words: carbon dioxide emission, low-carbon economy, GDP, energy consumption, time seri

摘要：

选取1985—2008年我国二氧化碳排放量、国内生产总值和能源消费等数据资料，通过时间序列分析考察二氧化碳排放与经济增长、能源消费之间的关系，得出：经济增长通常会拉动能源消费的增长，能源消费增加又是二氧化碳排放增加的原因。能源消费并不一定使得GDP增加，GDP与二氧化碳排放量增加的直接因果关系并不显著。在经济发展过程中，从理论分析上，可以实现经济增长和能源消费增加的脱钩，建立不依赖能源消费特别是高碳的化石能源消费的低碳经济发展模式。

关键词: 二氧化碳排放, 低碳经济, GDP, 能源消费, 时间序列
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