Abstract:

This paper uses grey correlation and GM(1,1) model to analyze the correlation between economy and industrial “three wastes” emissions from 1999-2010 〖JP2〗in Chinas 31 provinces, and to forecast the emissions from 2011-〖JP〗2015. The results show that economic development has a great impact on environmental pollution in 30 provinces, except for Beijing, and it leads to the increase in industrial gas waste emissions in 29 provinces. Gas waste emissions are forecasted to rise in 28 provinces from 2011-2015, and so are COD in water waste and solid waste emissions in five provinces. “Three wastes” emissions are forecasted to decease in only three provinces. Therefore, it is urgent to transform economic growth pattern. And it is suggested that we should develop clean energy, promote circular economy and establish a strict environmental supervision mechanism.

Key words: grey correlation, GM(1,1) model, economic growth, “three wastes&rdquo, emission

摘要：

利用灰色关联度和GM（1，1）模型，分析1999—2010年中国内地31个省(区、市)经济增长与工业“三废”排放量的关联性，预测2011—2015年31个省(区、市)的工业“三废”排放量。结果表明，中国内地除北京外，30个省(区、市)的经济增长对环境污染有较强的影响，29个省(区、市)经济增长引起工业废气排放量较大。预计2011—2015年28个省(区、市)的工业废气排放量呈增加态势，5个省(区、市)的工业废水中化学需氧量排放量和工业固体废弃物排放量上升，仅有3个省(区、市)的工业“三废”排放量下降。因此，转变经济增长方式是各省(区、市)面临的紧迫任务，建议大力开发清洁能源，发展循环经济，建立严格的环境监管机制。

关键词: 灰色关联度；GM（1, 1）模型；经济增长；“三废”排放