Abstract: This paper introduces the development of Americas tight oil, analyzes its impacts on Americas domestic and international oil and gas markets with the methods of statistics and comparison, and discusses its outlook. Rise in Americas tight oil production is adding crude oil supply globally, which will lower oil price. America will possibly relieve the ban in exporting crude oil. Technical innovation will boost the efficiency in developing tight oil. If the ban is still on, America will maintain its crude oil production of 430 000 t/d, leaving price room for other countries to develop tight oil. If the ban is off, America will double its tight oil production, which probably restrains the tight oil production in other countries.

Key words: tight oil, shale gas, crude oil price, development efficiency, ban of crude oil export

摘要： 梳理美国致密油的发展历程，并使用统计、对比等方法深入分析致密油发展对美国国内及国际原油市场的影响，并展望其未来开发前景。研究表明，致密油产量的增长将使全球原油市场供给更加宽松，中长期将拉低国际原油价格走势；同时，致密油发展已开始改变美国对外油气地缘政策并可能导致其原油出口禁令的解除。展望致密油发展前景，技术进步将持续提升致密油资源的开发效率；如果原油出口禁令仍严格执行，美国致密油日产量将维持在43万t左右，并为其他国家和地区发展致密油留有价格空间；如果原油出口禁令解除，美国致密油产量将在2020年翻番，并可能抑制世界其他地区致密油产量增长。

关键词: 致密油, 页岩气, 原油价格, 开发效率, 原油出口禁令