Abstract: This paper, based onnine factors relatedto energy supply stability and Shaanxi'sdata 1990—2011, concludes that the major factors of Shaanxi's energy supply stability are energy investment, carbon emission intensity, GDPper capita, industrial structure, population with their elasticity 0.8293, -0.2373, -0.2876, -2.1336and -2.4144, respectively. According to Shaanxi'senergy objectives and economicsocial planning, thispaper sets up scenarios for economy,popular growth, carbon emissionintensity andenergyinvestment, and forecasts the stability under ninescenarios. Shaanxi's stability rises upto 5.567 1 in 2020 under a low growth of populationand GDP per capita, a high growth in energy investment, andan intensified industrial structureadjustment and reducing carbon emission, but can't last long. Scenarios A, Band C are assumed under different energy investment growth to study the influence ofenergy investment over energy supply stability,which need tolimit growth in energy investment to avoid over mining and to maintain a rational energy production.

Key words: energy supply, stability, scenario analysis, Shaanxi province

摘要： 基于影响能源供给稳定性的9个因素，通过对1990—2011年陕西省的数据分析，得出能源投资、碳排放强度、人均GDP、产业结构、人口规模是影响陕西省能源稳定性的主要因素，其弹性系数分别为0.8293、-0.2373、-0.2876、-2.1336和-2.4144。依据陕西省各项能源发展目标及国民经济和社会发展规划，对近期（2011—2020年）陕西省经济发展、人口增长、碳排放强度和能源投资等进行情景设置, 并对其中9种情景下陕西省能源稳定性情况进行预测。在人口和人均GDP低增长、能源投资高增长、产业结构调整和节能减排力度加强的情况下，陕西省能源供给系统稳定度增强，其值2020年将达到5.5671。但这种稳定性是不持久的，在不同的能源投资增长情况下设置A、B、C三种情景，研究能源投资变化对长期能源供给稳定形势的影响。在资源储量有限的情况下，需要限制能源投资额的增长，避免过度开采需求，保持合理的能源生产量，是实现陕西省能源长期稳定性的有效手段。

关键词: 能源供给, 稳定性, 情景分析, 陕西省