Abstract: This paper uses carbon emission decomposition model to measure the carbon emission of industrial development in northern Jiangsu, and applies expanded STIRPAT model to analyze its factors, and employs carbon emission potential index model to study the reduction potential of industrial carbon emission. Industrial carbon emission intensity has gradually declined in northern Jiangsu, lower than the average in China, mostly contributed from power, mining, metallurgy, petroleum refinery and paper industries in Xuzhou and Huai'an. The factors impacting industrial carbon emission in northern Jiangsu include energy consumption intensity, industrial economy scale and industry structure, followed by the living standard of residents and urbanization level. The key industries with great potential in industrial carbon emission reduction are power, mining, petroleum refinery, chemicals and medicine, metallurgy, equipment manufacture, paper industries in Xuzhou, Huai'an and Lianyungang. This paper presents suggestions on establishing carbon emission objectives and responsibilities for key industries, enhancing carbon emission controls, exerting carbon emission reduction potential, and promoting industrial energy saving and advancing in northern Jiangsu province.

Key words: industry, carbon emission, factors, carbon emission reduction, northern Jiangsu

摘要： 以江苏苏北地区为例，分别从行业及地区层面运用碳排放分解模型测度工业发展的碳排放效应，运用扩展STIRPAT模型剖析工业碳排放的影响因素，进而利用碳排放潜力指数模型分析工业碳减排潜力。研究表明：近年来苏北工业碳排放强度逐年下降并低于全国平均水平，特别是电力、采矿、冶金、石化、造纸等行业，徐州、淮安两市碳排放强度明显下降；影响苏北工业碳排放的主要因素是能源消费强度、工业经济规模及行业结构，其次是居民生活水平及城市化发展水平；挖掘苏北工业碳减排潜力的重点在电力、采矿、石油加工、化学医药、冶金、装备制造、造纸等行业以及徐州、淮安、连云港等城市。据此提出加快能源领域科技创新步伐、建立重点行业碳排放目标管理和责任落实机制、加强重点城市碳排放管控、进一步挖掘碳减排潜力、促进苏北工业节能化和高级化转型等对策建议。

关键词: 工业, 碳排放, 影响因素, 减排潜力, 苏北