Abstract:

This paper, based on a generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis of VAR model, studies the dynamic interactions between exporting trade and five polluting indexes during 1991 to 2008 in Zhejiang province, also explains the long-term dynamic impacts of these five indexes under a rising exporting quantity. The results display a positive contribution to SO₂ discharge of exporting trade, but no positive contribution to other four polluting materials, which suggests that the exporting trade shall not lead to an increase in industrial pollution, inversely, will be helpful to manage the pollution and to decrease the discharges. SO₂ shall be a focus to be decreased in quantity in Zhejiang Province, which can promote the economic development and environmental protection.

Key words: exporting trade, environmental pollution, VAR； Zhejiang

摘要：

基于向量自回归模型的广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析，考察了浙江1991—2008年出口贸易与5类环境污染指标之间的动态冲击反应，从而解释了在出口增长条件下对5类污染指标的长期动态的影响特征。分析结果表明：浙江出口贸易除了对二氧化硫的排放存在正的贡献外，对其余4种污染物的排放没有正贡献，说明出口贸易并没有导致多数工业污染的增加，而在一定阶段后，会有助于污染排放的治理，导致排放的减少。今后浙江省的污染治理要高度重视二氧化硫排放的治理，这样可以做到经济发展和环境保护的双赢。

关键词: 出口贸易, 环境污染, VAR, 浙江