Table of Content

20 December 2019, Volume 21 Issue 6

Previous Issue    Next Issue

CHINA'S ENERGY STRATEGY PLANNING BASED ON PREDICTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE

ZHAO Zhicheng, LIU Qunyi

2019, 21(6):  1-8.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.007

Asbtract ( )   PDF (4651KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Energy consumption, production and structure mark a nation's energy development strategy. This paper uses ARIMA model to predict China's energy consumption and production in a short term, and applies Markov to forecast the change in China's energy consumption structure, and studies on cases the execution of China's energy strategic planning combined with China's “13th Five Years Plan”. Energy consumption may reach the expected objectives by the end of “13th Five Years Plan”, but energy production will be insufficient. Reduction in coal use and increase in non-fossil energy could be expected, but gas consumption is less. Self-supply of energy will be improved to 2025, coal use proportion in energy consumption structure will further decreasing with a slowly increasing in gas use. This paper presents suggestions on controlling gross energy consumption, increasing energy efficiency, boosting supply of oil-gas and non-fossil resources, and focusing on a sound development of gas market.

NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECAST IN CHINA BASED ON GRAY-PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE COMBINATION MODEL

LI Hongxun, NIE Hui

2019, 21(6):  9-18.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.004

Asbtract ( )   PDF (5940KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Natural gas is a vital part of low carbon energy by its efficiency, clean and safe feature under the world's low carbon economy. China is currently at the critical stage of transforming to low carbon economy. Natural gas as a basic energy supports the fast growth of economy. This paper uses gray model to predict the factors of natural gas demands and their developing trend, and applies partial least square regression model to study factors in consideration of their mutual linear attributes. Regression function is applied to forecast Chinas demand for natural gas from 2018 to 2027 with the result showing a stable but slow increasing trend, a little down in 2023, annual growth rate of gross demand is at 10%. Natural gas consumption proportion will be over 10% in 2025.

CASES STUDIES ON WATER-ENERGY-FOOD COUPLING COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

YIN Qingmin, WU Yi

2019, 21(6):  20-29.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.006

Asbtract ( )   PDF (5805KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Water, energy and food are three vital resources, their coordinated development provides a basis for the sustainable development of economy and society. This paper establishes an evaluation index system for Water-Energy-Food (WEF), weighted by means of entropy and variation coefficient, and calculates the coordinated development level of WEF system by means of coupling model, which is compared with WEF system by Gray Verhulst model during 2018 to 2027. The result shows a rising comprehensive evaluation index, a high coupling level of WEF system during 2002 to 2017, whose coupling coordination has undergone transition, generally coordinated and highly coordinated, and will keep premium coordination in the period of 2018 to 2027. The energy development level will still be behind water and food. This paper presents suggestions on intensifying energy developing efficiency in order to push a sustainable development of economy.

IMPACTS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING ABILITY ON INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER COMPETITIVENESS

XIE Maohua, ZHANG Jingxin, HAO Riwa, et al

2019, 21(6):  30-38.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.001

Asbtract ( )   PDF (5711KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

As industrial clusters grow fast, they need to improve their competitiveness and to realize industrial upgrade, which can be reached by using social capitals and increasing organizational learning ability. This paper, based on cases, establishes a conceptual model of industrial cluster competitiveness influenced by social capital from three dimensions of social capital and organizational learning ability, and uses structural function model and Lisrel software to test the assumption. During effects of social capital and organizational learning ability, the three dimensions of social capital, structural, relation and recognition dimensions, promote the organizational learning ability directly and indirectly, and vice versa. This study offers a useful supplement to related theories.

INITIAL ALLOCATION OF WATER DISCHARGE RIGHT BASED ON CHAOS OPTIMIZATION-PROJECTION PURSUIT

SHEN Juqin, LI Lin, ZHANG Kaize, et al

2019, 21(6):  39-47.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.003

Asbtract ( )   PDF (6045KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Initial allocation of stream water discharge right is a key factor in water right exchange mechanism, and a basis in promoting a fair water discharge and sustainable development. This paper, based on the research advances on rare resources allocation, presents an initial allocation model of water discharge right based on chaos optimization-projection pursuit by means of initial allocation methods of water right and waste water discharge right. Projection pursuit can avoid subjective evaluation, sample-driven optimization is more objective. Initial allocation proportion of water discharge right is finally determined through chaos optimization which is used to calculate the premium projection. Case study on Jiangsu section of Huaihe stream validates this method feasible, which covers historical loss, economic development and ecological environment that plays a leading role. The initial allocation proportion of central Jiangsu in Huaihe stream is generally higher than northern Jiangsu.

COAL INDUSTRY RADIATION EFFECT BASED ON INPUT/OUTPUT DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

YIN Qingmin, SONG Yuan, TIAN Guiliang

2019, 21(6):  48-59.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.008

Asbtract ( )   PDF (7289KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Coal as China's energy security cornerstone plays a key role in economy along with its radiation to correlated industries. This paper uses nations input/output 2002 to 2015 to dynamically analyze the radiation effect between coal industry and its correlated industries. The price model established on input/output table indicates a radiation of coal industry on its correlated industries, with four largely impacted sectors supply and production of electricity and heating, metallurgy and processing, chemicals and industrial minerals on their close economic dependence but a unstable industrial correlation, induction more than influence. The stated-above industries are sensitive to coal price change, especially the electricity and heating production and supply, with sensitiveness up to 0.0029. Diversified suggestions are presented for coal-electricity coalition, coal-steel coalition, coal-chemicals coalition and fossil energy-new energy coalition.

EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON IMPACTS OF CLEANING TECHNOLOGY AND POLLUTION CONTROLS ON EXHAUST GAS EMISSION BASED ON CHINA‘S EKC

LI Ruida, MA Shuang, MIAO Dongling

2019, 21(6):  60-68.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.002

Asbtract ( )   PDF (5566KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

How can China shift to quality development from high-speed under new economic situation? Adoption of cleaning technology is key to China‘s industrial upgrade and structural transformation. This paper uses EKC to analyze China‘s eastern, central and western regions, and concludes that China has reached the economic level above the inflection point of EKC, passing the conventional path of “first-pollution-then-control”, heading for a environment-friendly and resource-saving society. Four models are used based on 30 provinces’ panel data 2004 to 2017 to verify that the reduction of exhaust gas is mainly contributed by adoption of cleaning technology, not from adoption of pollution controls. FDI and industrial pollution control investments dramatically decrease the exhaust gas emission, energy consumption is statistically outstanding as alternative variable for cleaning technology, pollution discharge fees replaced by industrial pollution control investments is largely increased. This paper presents suggestions on intensifying environmental regulations and effectively guiding enterprises to reform and develop.

RELATION BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE AND HAZE POLLUTION IN CHINA BASED ON CHINA'S PROVINCIAL

DONG Tongtong, DENG Shicheng,YAN Qi

2019, 21(6):  69-81.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191211.001

Asbtract ( )   PDF (8273KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper selects indexes to study the status of China's energy consumption structure and haze pollution, and uses spatial computing to experimentally check the impacts of China's energy consumption structure on haze pollution based on 30 provinces' panel data 2001 to 2015, and forecasts the trend of China's energy consumption structure and its impacts on haze pollution. Generally, China's existing energy consumption structure worsens haze pollution to some extent. Coal is the largest energy consumption in China, but it is not the biggest factor on haze pollution at its unit consumption proportion. Eastern China diversifies its energy consumption structure with less independence on coal. Haze pollution varies with areas, but on the same boat with energy consumption structure nationwide.

SPATIAL VARIANCE OF FARMLAND CARBON EMISSION FACTORS BASED ON STIRPAT AND GWR MODELS

ZHU Lingwei, LI Dongqing, LUO Ganghui, et al

2019, 21(6):  82-91.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191211.002

Asbtract ( )   PDF (6733KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper, based on 31 provinces' farmland carbon emission data during 2011 to 2013, uses STIRPAT and GWR models to study the spatial variance of impact and coefficient of population, prosperity and technology on farmland carbon emission. Farmland gross carbon emission is characterized by high in agricultural province, carbon emission per capita by north-high-south-low, and carbon emission per acre by north-low-south-high. Population has a positively fixed elasticity on farmland carbon emission, but prosperity and technology display a spatial variance that the elasticity on agricultural increment per capita, non-agricultural income per capita, urbanization rate, agricultural machine gross power are stable but its values of spatial variance, and that on agriculture to the first industry ratio and agricultural farmland scale shows spatial variance, and values as well. Suggestions are presented on adjusting the inner structure of the fist industry in controlling farmland carbon emission, increasing farmland operation scale per capita in promoting farmland carbon emission reduction, especially for northeastern, northern, eastern and Inner Mongolia.

SPATIAL PATTERN OF HUAIHAI ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GRAVITY MODEL

HU Chunguang, WANG Zhongzhi, YANG Guang, et al

2019, 21(6):  92-98.  DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.005

Asbtract ( )   PDF (6297KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Huaihai economic zone, composed of northern Jiangsu, northern Anhui, eastern Henan and southern Shandong, has been underdeveloped for a long time. Now its development upgrades to a national strategy. Construction of the northern part will promote a co-integrated development of the whole zone. This paper uses gravity model to study the spatial structure of urban group of Huaihai economic zone with its results showing a urban comprehensive quality range from 218.16 to 1 062.58. Xuzhou city has the largest gravity within the zone, but has larger fault point average value with Jiangsu, Shandong and Henan, while smaller with Anhui, indicating a weak radiation of Xuzhou to Anhui's cities. Cities in Huaihai economic zone develop at uneven rates with XuHou as the center but with limited attraction and variable economic attractive force to other cities. Economic exchange and communication in the economic zone need to be improved, not only on Xuzhou's radiation, but also on Linyi and Huaian's diffusion as sub-centers, which boosts the integration of regional economy.